***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2018.-30.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 23.6 23.2 23.5 -0.3 48.8 47.1 22.4 23.2 23.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 23.9 23.5 23.5 -0.4 47.5 46.1 22.7 23.6 24.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 23.8 23.3 23.5 -0.5 45.5 44.2 22.9 23.4 24.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 16.8 16.4 20.9 -0.5 47.3 44.8 15.5 16.4 17.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 24.2 23.2 21.3 -1.0 37.5 38.1 23.1 23.7 25.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 23.4 22.6 19.5 -0.6 41.8 42.5 22.2 23.0 23.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 23.6 23.3 23.6 -0.3 49.9 48.0 22.3 23.3 23.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 12.1 12.5 19.5 -0.9 36.5 37.8 12.1 13.0 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 22.7 23.0 21.8 -1.0 36.0 37.6 22.8 23.4 24.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 22.4 22.2 20.3 -1.0 35.2 36.7 22.1 23.3 24.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 24.0 22.9 21.3 -1.0 36.8 37.9 22.9 23.5 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 23.5 22.2 20.6 -0.9 38.3 38.8 22.0 23.1 24.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 23.2 23.3 20.6 -1.0 37.2 37.7 23.1 23.9 25.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 24.0 23.0 21.6 -0.7 40.8 40.8 22.4 23.5 24.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 24.3 24.5 22.9 0.1 55.2 52.8 22.9 24.0 24.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 24.7 24.0 21.1 -0.8 39.0 40.0 23.9 24.3 25.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 23.2 22.7 23.3 -0.2 49.0 48.2 22.0 22.8 23.6 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 21.7 21.8 19.6 -1.0 37.3 37.4 21.7 22.4 23.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 23.7 23.1 23.5 -0.5 47.1 45.1 22.5 23.3 24.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 17.9 18.2 17.6 -0.9 36.3 37.9 17.9 18.8 19.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 22.7 22.9 22.6 -0.9 39.0 39.4 22.7 23.3 24.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 23.8 23.3 23.2 -0.3 48.9 47.0 22.9 23.5 24.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 23.8 23.4 23.4 -0.4 47.6 45.2 22.6 23.5 23.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 23.5 22.6 21.5 -0.8 40.5 40.1 22.4 23.0 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 22.4 23.2 21.7 -0.7 43.7 42.8 22.9 23.3 24.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 24.5 23.4 20.5 -0.6 42.2 42.5 22.7 24.2 24.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 23.6 23.2 22.7 -0.4 48.0 46.7 22.6 23.2 23.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 24.3 23.8 21.6 -0.4 47.6 46.5 23.3 23.8 24.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 17.2 17.3 18.9 -1.0 36.1 37.3 17.3 17.6 18.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 23.7 23.1 23.6 -0.4 47.9 46.7 22.5 23.2 24.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------