***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2018.-30.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 20.0 21.6 21.8 -0.1 48.6 49.9 20.9 21.6 23.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 20.8 22.2 21.9 -0.2 49.6 49.6 21.4 22.2 23.9 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 20.9 22.6 22.1 -0.2 48.8 49.1 21.1 22.7 23.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 16.3 15.7 19.6 -0.2 48.2 49.2 14.3 15.8 16.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 21.3 23.1 19.9 -0.6 45.4 45.6 21.3 23.2 24.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 20.1 21.7 18.3 -0.3 48.0 47.2 20.8 21.8 23.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 20.3 21.9 21.9 0.0 50.4 50.7 21.0 21.8 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 10.1 12.1 18.5 -0.5 44.5 45.5 10.7 12.4 12.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 20.5 22.4 20.2 -0.6 45.9 45.1 21.0 22.5 24.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 20.3 21.3 19.1 -0.6 44.7 45.2 20.3 22.0 24.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 20.7 22.4 19.8 -0.5 45.7 45.5 20.9 22.8 24.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 20.2 21.5 19.5 -0.5 45.0 45.5 20.3 22.1 23.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 21.0 23.0 19.0 -0.6 45.1 44.7 21.0 23.0 24.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 20.3 22.2 20.2 -0.5 45.4 46.8 21.0 22.2 23.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 23.5 23.1 20.7 0.2 53.3 52.7 21.6 22.9 23.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 21.6 23.3 19.6 -0.5 46.3 46.1 21.7 23.6 25.3 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 20.2 21.5 21.6 -0.1 50.3 50.0 20.9 21.5 22.7 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 19.4 20.7 18.8 -0.5 43.9 46.1 20.1 20.8 23.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 20.2 21.9 22.0 -0.2 49.2 49.3 21.2 21.9 23.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 15.9 17.3 16.5 -0.5 43.8 45.7 16.2 17.9 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 20.9 22.7 21.0 -0.5 46.8 46.0 20.8 23.1 24.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 21.0 22.2 21.6 -0.1 50.1 49.5 21.5 22.2 24.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 20.3 22.0 22.0 -0.2 48.4 49.5 21.2 22.2 23.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 20.3 21.9 20.2 -0.4 45.1 46.9 21.2 22.3 23.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 22.5 21.8 20.0 -0.3 46.4 47.8 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 20.7 22.2 19.3 -0.2 48.3 48.0 21.3 22.2 24.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 20.5 21.6 21.0 -0.1 48.3 49.5 21.1 22.0 23.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 21.3 23.1 20.0 -0.1 49.5 49.6 21.5 23.2 24.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 14.7 16.3 17.9 -0.6 43.4 45.5 15.6 16.5 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 20.4 21.9 22.0 -0.1 49.4 50.2 21.2 22.0 23.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------