***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2018.-23.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 23.4 22.2 22.5 -1.0 41.4 42.2 21.8 22.8 23.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 23.6 22.2 22.6 -0.9 41.9 43.1 21.9 22.9 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 21.4 22.9 22.7 -1.0 39.9 42.1 22.4 23.2 25.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 14.9 16.0 20.3 -1.1 37.5 40.3 15.6 16.9 17.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 22.4 23.4 20.6 -1.4 34.2 38.0 23.3 24.8 25.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 22.0 22.1 18.8 -1.2 34.7 39.7 21.7 23.7 24.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 23.1 21.9 22.6 -0.8 44.2 43.6 21.7 22.3 24.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 11.9 12.5 19.1 -1.3 35.1 39.0 12.3 13.2 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 22.2 23.3 20.8 -1.5 35.5 38.0 22.9 24.1 24.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 21.8 22.1 19.7 -1.4 35.3 38.6 22.0 23.8 25.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 22.5 23.2 20.4 -1.4 35.3 38.4 22.9 24.4 25.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 21.7 22.8 20.0 -1.4 35.3 38.6 22.4 24.0 24.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 22.9 23.3 19.4 -1.6 34.7 37.1 22.9 25.2 25.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 21.5 22.7 20.8 -1.1 40.4 40.9 21.3 23.1 24.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 22.3 23.7 21.4 -0.7 44.1 44.3 22.5 24.3 25.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 23.3 24.0 20.1 -1.4 35.4 38.5 23.6 25.5 26.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 22.7 21.5 22.5 -0.7 44.9 44.8 20.9 22.1 23.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 21.0 21.9 19.3 -1.3 37.2 39.6 21.1 22.9 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 23.2 22.5 22.7 -0.9 41.7 42.9 21.6 22.6 24.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 19.6 18.1 17.0 -1.2 35.5 39.8 17.9 19.1 20.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 21.9 23.1 21.7 -1.4 36.8 38.8 22.7 24.0 25.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 23.4 22.4 22.4 -0.7 45.2 45.0 21.3 22.6 24.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 23.7 22.7 22.7 -0.9 43.1 43.0 21.9 22.9 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 21.5 22.5 20.8 -1.2 39.6 40.4 21.8 23.3 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 21.7 22.7 20.6 -1.3 36.8 39.4 22.4 23.4 24.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 22.6 23.0 19.8 -1.1 38.3 40.8 22.5 24.7 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 23.6 22.4 21.6 -1.0 40.5 41.7 22.0 22.9 24.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 22.8 23.1 20.7 -1.0 39.5 41.5 22.4 24.9 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 16.6 17.9 18.4 -1.3 36.8 39.5 17.4 18.9 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 23.4 22.2 22.6 -0.9 42.2 43.1 21.9 22.7 24.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------