***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2018.-16.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 25.4 24.2 23.8 -0.8 44.2 43.9 22.0 25.0 26.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 25.6 23.2 23.9 -0.8 43.0 44.4 22.5 25.1 26.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 25.8 24.0 23.8 -1.0 42.4 42.7 22.8 25.5 26.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 18.3 16.6 20.9 -1.2 39.6 41.0 14.9 17.8 19.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 26.2 24.1 21.6 -1.4 37.9 38.7 23.1 25.9 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 25.0 23.9 19.8 -1.0 40.6 42.3 22.2 24.6 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 25.5 23.1 23.9 -0.7 45.0 45.7 22.1 25.1 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 14.5 13.1 19.8 -1.3 37.9 39.6 12.6 14.1 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 26.2 24.0 22.2 -1.4 37.4 38.9 22.7 25.9 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 25.4 23.4 20.6 -1.4 36.0 38.8 23.0 25.0 25.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 25.9 24.3 21.7 -1.4 38.1 39.2 22.9 25.5 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 25.3 23.7 20.9 -1.2 39.6 40.4 22.7 24.9 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 26.4 24.8 21.1 -1.3 39.7 39.3 23.7 26.1 26.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 25.4 24.1 22.1 -1.0 43.5 43.0 22.7 24.9 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 26.0 25.2 23.0 -0.8 43.6 45.3 22.7 25.6 26.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 26.9 25.7 21.4 -1.2 40.8 40.1 24.0 26.5 27.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 24.8 23.1 23.6 -0.6 45.1 46.4 21.5 24.4 25.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 24.4 22.3 19.9 -1.3 36.8 39.9 22.0 24.0 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 25.3 22.9 23.8 -0.9 43.3 43.9 22.5 24.8 26.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 20.8 19.2 18.0 -1.2 37.2 40.3 18.7 20.5 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 25.9 24.6 23.0 -1.3 39.0 39.4 22.6 25.5 26.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 25.3 23.6 23.6 -0.6 45.8 46.4 22.2 24.9 25.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 25.1 24.0 23.8 -0.8 45.5 44.6 22.6 24.6 26.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 25.4 23.0 21.9 -1.1 40.3 41.3 22.5 25.2 26.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 25.4 23.5 22.1 -1.2 38.6 40.3 22.5 24.9 26.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 25.9 25.2 20.7 -1.0 43.9 42.5 23.9 25.4 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 25.8 23.8 23.0 -0.9 42.7 43.5 22.3 25.4 26.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 26.0 23.8 21.7 -1.1 39.9 41.8 23.1 25.7 26.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 19.6 17.6 19.2 -1.2 37.8 40.5 17.5 19.2 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 25.2 23.2 24.0 -0.8 43.3 44.5 22.4 24.8 26.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------