***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2018.-09.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 24.4 25.7 25.8 0.6 63.1 60.7 23.0 24.0 26.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 90 10 100 24.7 25.0 25.7 0.3 58.6 58.1 22.8 24.4 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 90 10 100 24.5 24.9 25.3 0.0 54.6 54.1 22.9 24.2 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 92 8 100 17.3 17.8 22.8 0.4 59.0 57.7 15.8 17.1 17.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 24.9 24.4 23.1 -0.4 48.5 49.5 23.3 24.6 26.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 91 9 100 23.8 23.6 21.3 0.0 52.4 53.3 22.4 23.5 24.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 88 12 100 24.1 25.2 25.8 0.6 61.8 60.2 22.4 23.6 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 13.5 12.8 20.8 -0.6 46.7 46.8 12.0 13.2 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 25.0 24.5 23.9 -0.4 48.3 49.5 22.8 24.7 26.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 24.4 23.5 21.7 -0.8 44.0 45.1 22.8 24.2 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 24.7 24.0 23.2 -0.6 47.1 47.7 23.0 24.3 26.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 89 11 100 23.7 23.4 22.1 -0.5 49.7 49.0 22.3 23.4 25.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 92 8 100 24.7 24.4 23.0 -0.5 49.5 49.4 23.5 24.5 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 24.9 24.7 23.5 -0.4 50.4 49.8 23.2 24.6 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 42 58 100 26.2 26.0 26.4 1.5 69.4 68.1 23.7 24.9 25.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 91 9 100 25.2 25.4 23.1 -0.3 51.5 51.4 23.9 25.0 27.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 24.0 24.8 25.4 0.6 63.2 60.6 22.4 23.5 25.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 23.7 22.9 20.6 -0.8 42.0 43.7 21.9 23.3 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 90 10 100 24.4 24.8 25.5 0.1 56.0 56.2 22.7 24.1 25.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 19.5 18.9 18.9 -0.7 42.8 44.6 18.3 19.1 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 24.9 24.7 24.8 -0.2 50.5 51.2 22.9 24.5 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 24.7 25.0 25.1 0.2 58.9 57.5 22.9 24.4 26.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 24.8 24.6 25.2 0.1 55.9 55.5 22.7 24.4 25.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 24.6 24.0 23.2 -0.5 47.6 48.3 22.9 24.2 25.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 90 10 100 24.3 24.9 24.3 0.2 57.2 56.0 23.0 23.9 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 91 9 100 24.8 24.7 22.0 -0.1 52.4 52.7 23.1 24.6 25.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 89 11 100 24.0 25.4 25.1 0.6 62.6 60.4 22.7 23.6 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 91 9 100 25.1 25.6 24.1 0.6 60.9 59.9 24.2 24.9 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 19.1 18.4 20.0 -0.9 42.1 43.1 17.9 18.8 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 24.0 25.1 25.7 0.4 59.1 58.0 22.6 23.7 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------