***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2018.-30.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 11.4 11.7 14.4 0.6 64.3 62.4 10.9 11.2 11.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 12.0 11.7 14.0 0.6 66.0 62.2 10.7 11.1 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 13.4 13.7 14.5 0.6 64.9 62.6 12.7 13.2 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 9.4 9.7 11.9 0.7 69.1 65.6 8.2 8.6 9.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 10.9 10.6 12.1 0.6 65.9 63.4 9.5 10.1 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 9.9 9.9 10.2 0.8 69.8 67.6 8.8 9.2 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 11.5 11.6 14.2 0.6 64.8 62.5 11.0 11.3 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 5.7 5.4 9.9 0.5 67.3 62.8 4.3 4.9 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 11.9 11.6 12.3 0.6 68.5 64.8 10.8 11.1 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 11.7 11.3 10.7 0.6 67.5 63.6 10.3 10.8 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 11.2 10.9 11.6 0.6 67.2 64.7 10.2 10.3 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 9.9 9.9 10.6 0.5 66.2 62.9 8.7 9.2 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 10.8 10.5 10.6 0.7 68.8 65.9 9.6 10.2 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 12.4 11.9 12.2 0.6 69.1 63.7 10.8 11.5 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 12.5 12.6 13.5 1.0 74.7 71.6 11.1 11.7 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 11.9 12.0 11.1 0.7 68.2 65.6 10.7 11.1 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 12.1 11.8 13.8 0.6 66.0 63.1 10.9 11.3 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 10.5 10.3 10.0 0.5 67.3 62.9 9.0 9.6 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 12.0 11.4 14.0 0.6 65.3 62.1 10.7 11.3 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 6.7 6.7 8.2 0.4 66.3 61.1 5.5 6.0 6.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 11.4 11.2 13.5 0.5 65.9 62.1 10.2 10.8 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 10.8 11.1 13.8 0.6 64.2 62.7 9.9 10.5 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 11.6 11.2 14.0 0.6 65.3 63.0 10.1 10.6 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 12.0 11.3 12.0 0.6 67.5 64.1 10.3 10.8 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 11.6 11.8 13.3 0.5 64.4 61.0 10.4 11.4 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 10.7 10.9 10.2 0.7 69.2 65.9 9.8 10.0 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 11.8 12.1 13.8 0.6 63.7 61.9 11.1 11.6 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 10.4 10.4 12.2 0.7 70.1 67.1 9.3 9.6 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 9.6 9.1 9.3 0.5 66.3 61.7 8.1 8.8 9.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 11.9 11.9 14.3 0.6 65.3 62.2 11.3 11.8 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------