***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2018.-30.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.7 12.3 0.0 54.7 50.3 9.8 10.7 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.8 12.0 0.0 53.8 50.5 9.3 10.7 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 13.0 13.0 12.4 0.0 52.9 50.0 11.5 12.9 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.5 8.1 9.6 -0.1 51.3 48.5 6.6 8.1 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.3 10.0 9.6 -0.3 48.2 46.6 8.2 10.0 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.2 8.9 8.1 -0.1 48.9 49.9 7.8 9.0 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 10.9 10.7 12.2 0.1 52.8 50.9 9.5 10.6 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 4.7 4.4 7.8 -0.2 47.3 47.4 3.8 4.4 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 10.5 10.1 9.8 -0.3 48.0 46.3 9.7 10.2 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 10.3 9.9 8.4 -0.3 46.7 46.4 9.5 10.0 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 10.2 9.8 9.0 -0.3 47.8 46.7 9.1 9.8 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.1 8.7 8.3 -0.2 47.3 47.8 8.1 8.8 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 9.9 9.1 7.9 -0.2 46.3 47.3 8.2 9.7 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.6 9.9 -0.2 47.7 47.4 9.9 10.6 10.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.2 10.9 10.8 0.0 52.4 50.7 9.8 10.9 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 10.8 10.5 8.5 -0.2 46.8 47.3 9.9 10.5 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.6 10.3 11.8 0.1 52.8 50.4 9.6 10.2 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.4 9.0 7.7 -0.3 44.9 46.3 8.0 9.1 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.6 10.5 12.0 0.0 53.8 50.2 9.3 10.3 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 4.5 4.9 6.0 -0.3 44.1 46.1 4.4 5.4 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 10.5 10.2 11.3 -0.2 49.8 47.4 9.1 10.2 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.6 11.7 0.0 51.2 49.8 8.9 9.5 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 10.5 10.3 11.8 -0.1 52.5 49.7 9.1 10.3 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 10.2 9.8 9.6 -0.2 47.2 47.0 9.3 10.0 10.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 11.2 11.1 10.9 -0.1 52.6 48.6 9.6 10.9 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.9 9.5 7.9 -0.1 46.7 49.1 9.0 9.6 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.8 11.7 0.0 53.8 49.8 9.2 11.5 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.5 9.1 9.8 -0.1 49.1 48.6 8.1 9.2 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 6.8 8.3 7.2 -0.3 42.7 45.3 7.1 8.3 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 11.1 11.0 12.3 0.1 53.6 51.0 10.0 10.8 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------