***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2018.-23.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 11.2 10.7 13.3 -0.3 47.7 47.6 10.3 10.9 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 11.4 11.1 13.0 -0.3 50.5 48.0 9.8 11.1 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 13.3 12.9 13.4 -0.2 50.1 48.5 12.2 12.9 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 8.9 8.8 10.7 -0.2 51.3 49.3 7.6 8.6 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 10.7 10.5 10.7 -0.2 48.1 47.9 9.5 10.5 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.8 9.4 9.2 0.0 52.1 51.1 8.4 9.4 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 11.8 11.5 13.1 -0.2 49.4 47.9 10.1 11.5 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 5.8 5.7 8.9 -0.1 49.4 49.2 4.6 5.7 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 11.6 11.4 10.9 -0.2 49.1 47.6 10.5 11.5 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 11.3 11.2 9.6 -0.2 49.5 48.3 10.2 11.2 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 10.9 10.7 10.2 -0.1 49.9 49.5 9.7 10.7 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.8 9.4 9.5 0.0 50.2 50.4 8.6 9.4 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.5 10.2 9.1 0.0 49.1 49.7 9.3 10.2 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 11.6 11.3 11.0 -0.2 48.5 48.3 10.8 11.4 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 12.1 12.2 12.0 0.1 55.3 52.9 10.6 11.9 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 11.5 11.2 9.7 0.0 49.8 50.1 10.6 11.2 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.6 12.8 -0.2 51.0 48.7 10.2 11.5 12.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 10.4 10.2 8.8 -0.1 50.5 48.9 9.5 10.1 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 12.0 11.8 12.9 -0.3 50.6 48.1 10.2 11.7 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 6.5 6.3 6.9 -0.2 48.5 48.3 5.6 6.3 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 11.1 10.8 12.3 -0.3 48.9 46.8 10.3 10.9 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 10.8 10.5 12.6 -0.2 50.8 48.4 9.3 10.5 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 10.8 10.5 12.8 -0.2 49.9 48.6 9.8 10.5 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.0 10.8 10.8 -0.1 50.0 49.2 10.2 10.8 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 11.8 11.4 11.9 -0.4 47.3 46.2 10.4 11.6 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.6 10.2 9.1 0.1 51.8 52.1 9.3 10.2 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 11.8 11.3 12.6 -0.3 47.1 47.2 9.7 11.6 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 10.1 9.8 11.0 -0.1 52.4 50.7 8.7 9.8 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 9.1 8.8 8.2 -0.2 49.3 48.2 7.9 8.8 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 12.0 11.7 13.2 -0.2 50.7 48.3 10.0 11.7 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------