***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2018.-16.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 12.7 12.6 14.9 0.7 63.7 59.4 10.3 12.4 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 12.2 12.1 14.4 0.6 61.6 58.7 10.8 11.9 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 14.3 14.7 15.0 0.7 63.0 59.9 13.0 14.0 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 11.2 10.1 12.4 0.7 65.0 60.3 8.5 9.6 10.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.8 11.4 12.8 0.7 63.4 59.8 9.3 10.4 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 10.7 10.7 10.7 0.8 66.0 61.9 8.0 9.7 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 12.0 12.1 14.5 0.5 60.2 57.9 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 6.8 6.5 10.7 0.8 64.0 61.0 4.3 5.8 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 12.2 12.6 13.0 0.8 63.0 61.4 11.1 12.0 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 12.4 12.2 11.5 0.8 63.0 61.4 10.2 11.5 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 11.8 11.5 12.4 0.8 64.5 61.7 9.6 11.1 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 10.6 10.4 11.5 0.8 64.0 60.7 8.3 9.8 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 10.5 11.4 11.4 0.9 66.1 62.8 8.8 10.2 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 13.0 12.4 12.8 0.8 64.4 62.2 10.9 12.2 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 13.2 13.4 14.1 0.9 67.1 63.9 10.6 12.4 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 11.9 12.4 12.0 0.9 64.3 61.9 10.5 11.5 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.5 14.1 0.5 61.1 58.2 11.2 12.0 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 11.3 10.9 10.8 0.8 64.0 61.9 8.9 10.2 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.2 12.3 14.5 0.6 62.5 59.5 10.9 11.9 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 7.5 7.3 9.1 0.8 65.1 61.8 5.0 6.2 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.7 12.1 14.1 0.7 62.6 59.9 10.5 11.4 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.6 11.8 14.2 0.6 63.3 59.2 10.1 11.3 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 11.7 11.6 14.5 0.8 63.2 61.1 10.5 11.4 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 12.5 12.1 12.7 0.8 64.6 61.9 10.4 11.1 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 12.2 12.4 13.8 0.6 61.7 58.0 10.6 11.9 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 11.3 11.7 11.0 0.9 66.3 62.1 9.1 10.1 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 12.6 12.7 14.3 0.6 62.4 58.5 10.9 12.4 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 11.5 11.0 12.7 0.8 64.7 61.1 8.5 10.8 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 10.5 10.4 10.2 0.8 64.1 61.8 8.5 9.2 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 12.4 12.6 14.7 0.6 62.0 59.0 11.1 12.2 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------