***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2018.-09.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 13.1 13.2 17.2 2.1 81.0 79.9 11.0 11.7 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 13.4 13.7 16.8 2.0 80.6 79.4 10.2 11.8 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 15.9 16.0 17.1 1.9 78.8 78.1 12.5 13.5 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 11.3 11.8 14.9 2.3 80.9 81.2 7.5 8.6 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 4 96 100 12.2 12.5 15.4 2.0 81.3 79.5 10.0 10.8 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 11.5 11.7 12.9 2.3 84.5 83.8 9.4 10.0 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 13.3 13.6 17.0 2.1 80.7 79.5 10.9 12.0 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 15 85 100 7.0 7.2 12.2 1.6 76.2 75.6 3.7 5.1 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 13.1 13.5 15.6 2.2 83.8 83.3 10.7 11.9 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 12.8 12.9 13.5 1.9 79.9 79.1 10.9 12.1 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 4 96 100 12.5 12.6 14.8 2.0 81.2 80.9 10.7 11.6 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 15 85 100 11.0 11.1 13.2 1.6 74.1 74.3 9.0 10.2 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 6 94 100 11.9 12.1 13.8 2.1 82.9 81.9 10.1 11.0 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 5 95 100 13.8 14.2 15.0 1.9 81.0 80.1 11.4 12.0 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 13.8 14.6 17.1 2.8 91.1 90.2 12.2 12.9 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 13.3 13.7 14.4 2.1 82.0 81.5 11.2 12.2 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 1 99 100 13.9 14.1 16.6 2.2 83.7 81.9 11.5 12.2 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 10 90 100 12.0 12.2 12.7 1.7 78.3 76.7 9.9 10.5 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 9 91 100 13.4 13.6 16.7 1.9 79.9 78.4 10.9 11.6 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 8.1 8.3 10.6 1.4 72.9 71.7 5.9 6.9 7.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 4 96 100 13.2 13.3 16.5 2.0 81.7 80.7 10.5 11.6 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 5 95 100 12.9 13.1 16.7 2.0 81.4 80.3 10.8 11.2 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 9 91 100 13.0 13.3 16.6 1.9 79.8 78.1 10.4 10.9 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 4 96 100 13.3 13.4 14.9 1.8 80.1 79.2 10.8 12.1 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 5 95 100 13.8 14.1 16.4 2.1 80.5 79.5 10.7 11.2 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 9 91 100 11.9 12.1 12.8 1.9 81.6 79.1 10.3 11.2 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 4 96 100 13.5 15.0 16.7 2.1 81.2 79.9 10.5 11.5 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 11.9 12.1 15.4 2.4 84.9 84.3 9.9 10.8 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 16 84 100 10.9 11.0 11.8 1.5 76.1 75.0 7.8 9.2 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 4 96 100 13.6 13.7 17.0 2.0 78.7 78.3 10.9 12.0 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------