***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2012.-30.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 32.6 93.2 51.1 47.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 24.2 41.4 37.2 105.1 58.2 52.3 30.1 37.5 53.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 30.2 47.9 35.4 98.6 53.9 48.7 29.1 46.2 64.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 38.9 58.8 36.1 92.1 52.2 45.8 32.5 57.7 79.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 24.8 39.4 37.0 91.9 48.0 45.5 32.6 41.9 53.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 47.4 52.0 51.4 107.6 55.0 52.1 27.3 41.8 60.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 29.8 47.8 36.5 102.2 55.3 51.8 34.1 43.8 59.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 48.4 64.5 44.2 92.1 48.7 45.9 47.3 65.0 88.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 28.9 43.4 37.6 89.9 47.7 44.0 30.7 44.3 58.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 31.9 48.3 44.5 92.3 47.2 45.4 31.4 48.8 69.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 28.5 46.0 36.0 94.6 51.2 47.1 31.1 45.5 62.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 26.6 49.6 36.7 95.8 53.8 48.0 24.8 44.4 63.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 50.3 47.8 44.2 105.3 56.0 51.7 29.9 45.9 61.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 41.6 60.4 44.6 93.7 46.2 46.0 41.1 61.8 70.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 39.7 33.8 33.0 91.6 53.2 47.6 20.6 30.6 59.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 24.1 38.1 39.3 101.3 54.0 50.1 23.9 36.3 52.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 50.0 51.6 37.4 102.4 57.2 51.5 31.8 45.6 53.4 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 38.2 51.3 51.1 92.3 44.6 45.2 40.7 61.5 77.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 27.6 51.0 37.1 105.0 56.9 51.4 31.3 45.7 64.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 46.8 60.4 59.1 88.3 41.3 43.5 50.7 68.1 78.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 61.5 58.0 34.2 92.6 52.5 46.2 29.0 55.7 65.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 49.2 45.6 39.6 105.8 55.9 51.3 30.6 41.6 51.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 25.6 42.4 37.0 100.8 53.8 49.1 25.0 41.2 51.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 37.5 59.5 43.4 94.2 47.7 46.0 37.3 63.2 79.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 55.4 50.2 35.6 88.0 50.3 45.2 34.8 50.1 68.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 41.8 47.5 41.2 111.1 65.7 53.8 27.3 34.3 47.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 31.2 44.0 35.4 90.1 50.2 46.3 34.1 44.0 60.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 46.0 40.4 36.1 97.2 52.4 48.7 20.3 37.0 65.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 57.2 76.1 53.2 89.1 41.9 43.6 59.4 82.1 112.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 25.0 48.0 36.1 102.9 57.1 51.4 26.1 39.0 54.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------