***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2012.-30.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 0.0 6.4 88.5 65.2 50.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 2.6 11.4 8.2 106.1 65.1 51.8 2.6 5.9 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 2.7 10.0 7.1 97.4 62.7 50.2 3.5 6.1 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 6.0 24.4 7.1 90.3 66.7 49.5 3.3 13.1 24.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.3 13.7 7.3 89.5 67.4 49.9 4.0 9.4 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.4 16.1 10.5 101.7 66.2 51.6 2.7 7.1 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 1.6 10.2 8.2 104.7 66.5 53.1 2.2 3.7 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 6.4 18.8 9.4 89.7 64.3 48.7 6.5 13.6 19.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.6 14.0 7.6 88.6 65.7 49.9 1.8 10.4 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 5.4 22.7 9.1 89.1 64.4 49.0 2.9 12.4 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.4 18.7 7.1 89.5 68.7 48.3 3.3 9.9 17.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 2.3 17.2 7.2 88.6 66.3 48.1 3.3 5.1 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.6 11.5 8.8 98.5 65.8 50.0 3.7 7.7 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 14.8 16.7 9.4 97.4 61.3 51.2 5.5 11.6 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 8.9 12.9 6.7 94.1 69.0 50.1 2.0 5.9 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 3.1 13.3 7.6 97.7 69.2 49.2 3.3 7.3 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 8.0 9.9 8.8 107.3 66.2 53.4 1.7 6.3 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 3.8 13.6 10.5 88.3 58.8 48.9 3.7 9.1 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 2.9 8.4 8.0 107.3 64.7 51.9 4.0 6.1 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.4 16.6 14.3 94.6 62.2 49.7 6.1 10.0 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 3.8 18.8 6.6 86.2 66.1 50.4 2.6 9.3 18.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.8 10.7 9.3 114.9 65.4 55.3 2.2 8.6 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.0 12.0 8.0 106.8 64.7 52.1 3.9 8.5 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 3.5 10.4 8.8 91.5 59.7 49.6 2.6 8.3 14.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 4.0 15.8 7.2 84.6 62.8 49.5 4.7 9.9 20.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.7 14.6 8.9 101.8 66.9 50.1 2.1 7.9 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 5.5 17.9 7.2 86.8 63.4 50.4 3.3 12.4 18.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.3 15.5 7.2 98.0 70.0 50.2 1.9 7.3 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 4.7 19.6 11.9 91.8 59.1 49.6 6.0 10.8 33.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.6 10.7 7.8 104.0 64.7 52.0 2.5 5.4 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------