***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2012.-23.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 9999.0 0.0 5.7 57.9 54.6 39.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 3.5 9.6 7.7 86.8 63.3 46.4 2.1 7.9 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 2.0 9.3 6.7 69.8 55.5 40.0 2.2 6.8 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 1.7 8.1 6.7 57.3 55.4 39.1 2.1 5.6 10.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 1.2 4.6 7.0 59.7 53.9 38.1 0.5 4.0 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 2.2 7.6 11.4 78.9 53.6 41.3 1.7 6.1 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.5 11.7 7.3 79.1 60.7 44.3 2.7 8.6 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 3.3 10.1 9.8 69.4 49.7 38.7 3.3 10.4 19.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 76 24 0 100 1.2 6.6 7.4 62.8 54.5 37.8 1.3 5.2 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 1.8 6.2 9.4 67.6 49.7 37.9 4.0 6.3 10.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 0.8 6.0 7.3 66.2 53.3 38.4 0.7 2.5 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 1.4 8.1 8.1 71.7 54.9 39.5 1.0 4.2 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 2.6 8.0 9.6 77.0 57.5 42.1 1.4 7.2 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 3.2 14.6 8.7 70.8 54.5 40.7 1.5 11.0 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 0.7 7.1 7.1 64.0 63.0 40.8 0.1 2.3 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 1.2 3.5 8.1 70.5 55.2 39.9 0.6 3.2 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 3.1 9.1 7.9 90.4 61.8 46.3 3.3 7.3 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 1.7 5.2 11.1 70.3 47.4 37.6 0.9 6.3 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 2.6 12.7 7.7 87.7 64.2 46.4 2.0 6.1 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 4.1 11.8 13.5 68.1 44.7 38.4 4.2 14.6 21.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 1.5 4.9 6.3 60.4 52.8 38.6 1.4 4.8 17.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 2.8 11.3 8.4 97.2 62.2 48.4 0.6 6.3 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 2.1 12.6 7.4 80.6 64.8 44.1 2.0 6.1 13.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 1.6 5.8 8.9 70.1 49.2 38.0 2.3 5.9 22.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 2.8 8.6 6.2 52.9 52.7 38.4 1.6 7.4 16.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 2.9 10.2 8.4 81.1 58.2 41.6 2.0 7.6 18.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 3.1 9.0 6.3 57.0 53.8 39.3 0.9 8.0 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 0.7 9.0 7.1 63.9 57.9 40.4 0.2 2.4 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 3.6 10.5 11.6 68.1 46.9 37.8 6.4 12.5 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 1.7 8.2 7.2 79.2 58.9 44.1 0.7 4.1 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------