***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2012.-16.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 9999.0 0.0 6.9 89.8 59.9 43.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 3.0 12.9 6.4 79.1 60.8 43.9 2.6 8.3 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 1.8 8.9 6.4 78.4 57.5 44.1 0.7 4.8 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 3.3 15.7 8.4 96.1 67.8 45.4 2.1 7.8 15.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.3 15.0 8.2 85.9 66.6 45.6 1.0 7.4 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 1.6 14.0 13.8 120.7 73.2 49.8 0.2 3.8 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 1.8 10.7 6.4 77.6 58.9 43.5 3.8 5.4 14.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 8.2 21.2 9.0 79.6 62.1 47.7 4.4 17.1 21.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.7 12.5 7.8 79.1 60.9 43.4 2.5 9.1 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 5.5 13.7 8.7 77.4 59.0 45.4 3.0 11.9 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 2.7 12.0 7.9 87.0 64.1 48.1 1.4 6.3 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.1 14.6 8.2 91.3 68.1 49.0 2.0 7.2 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 7.3 13.0 11.0 111.1 69.7 51.0 1.2 3.9 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 3.7 10.2 7.8 67.5 53.9 43.1 2.9 8.1 24.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 1.1 12.1 8.3 108.6 73.2 47.9 0.4 2.6 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 2.3 9.8 9.7 104.3 68.8 48.7 2.4 5.3 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 4.0 19.9 6.1 73.1 60.7 42.6 1.9 11.3 22.2 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 5.1 11.1 9.6 74.5 53.4 43.7 4.1 9.8 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 3.7 10.7 6.2 77.7 59.8 44.6 2.5 8.3 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 7.8 15.4 11.9 73.4 54.0 44.4 5.9 13.9 26.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.3 15.1 7.0 83.9 60.8 44.6 2.2 7.8 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 4.3 14.3 6.6 76.1 59.6 44.1 3.8 10.6 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.1 12.4 6.1 73.2 55.7 44.8 3.0 6.8 18.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 3.6 10.5 7.8 71.8 53.2 43.0 1.5 8.6 21.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.8 20.5 8.4 95.0 63.4 46.2 3.1 8.3 21.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 1.0 9.2 9.7 112.5 71.3 52.1 0.8 2.2 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 2.6 13.9 8.1 92.8 61.3 45.5 1.7 6.9 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.2 11.3 8.9 108.7 72.0 47.6 0.6 5.4 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 10.8 23.7 10.3 72.1 52.7 43.3 7.1 20.8 29.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 3.7 11.4 6.5 80.7 61.2 44.4 6.0 10.0 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------