***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2012.-09.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 13.6 133.1 75.3 57.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 5.7 12.4 14.9 139.2 71.9 58.2 1.3 3.7 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 8.0 13.7 15.1 141.1 72.6 58.4 1.1 4.8 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 12.7 20.6 14.0 127.0 67.0 55.7 4.1 9.2 20.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 8.8 18.2 14.5 133.4 69.3 58.7 2.6 6.2 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.8 12.1 15.7 135.8 72.0 58.5 4.1 7.7 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 9.3 16.9 14.6 140.6 71.8 58.8 1.0 6.7 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 23.4 29.7 16.1 131.6 67.9 59.4 9.6 18.3 28.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 11.5 18.1 14.8 127.6 70.0 58.8 2.1 9.3 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 10.3 14.1 17.3 134.3 69.2 61.0 2.8 7.8 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 10.7 18.7 13.7 137.0 70.3 59.4 3.8 8.8 18.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 13.2 20.5 13.3 132.5 70.4 58.5 4.5 9.4 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 13.7 19.6 14.9 138.1 71.2 60.4 3.2 11.9 19.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 4.1 16.1 18.7 132.8 69.9 58.2 1.8 7.7 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 1.1 5.8 11.0 106.6 63.3 49.9 0.6 2.2 6.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 10.1 18.4 13.9 135.6 70.6 58.3 3.7 7.2 17.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 6.3 13.7 14.5 130.2 71.3 58.2 1.0 4.2 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 14.1 17.3 19.9 134.3 68.7 60.8 4.1 11.6 17.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 10.5 16.1 15.1 137.5 70.4 57.5 1.6 7.6 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 18.4 22.0 19.4 121.9 66.6 57.3 6.5 15.3 21.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.2 13.7 14.4 135.8 71.3 58.7 1.4 5.9 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.2 14.9 15.2 127.4 70.4 57.4 3.5 9.7 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 6.9 13.0 15.5 132.5 69.5 56.1 2.0 3.7 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 9.6 15.3 17.9 138.2 70.0 59.5 1.5 6.6 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 7.1 11.0 13.8 121.4 66.2 55.3 0.2 4.3 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 8.0 14.6 14.2 151.7 72.5 63.2 1.2 6.3 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 5.6 9.4 13.9 122.5 68.4 55.8 0.4 3.8 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 9.6 11.5 12.9 123.3 66.4 54.6 1.5 7.4 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.4 27.6 19.3 125.3 65.5 58.3 12.2 19.1 27.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 6.9 13.3 14.7 139.5 71.7 58.4 0.7 4.9 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------