***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2012.-30.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 9999.0 0.0 25.1 2.1 83.3 79.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 24.7 25.4 25.0 2.0 82.1 78.1 22.7 23.6 24.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 24.8 25.7 25.1 2.1 82.5 78.9 22.9 23.4 24.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 17.6 18.5 23.2 1.8 80.0 75.0 15.5 16.4 17.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 25.3 25.9 23.5 2.0 81.1 76.8 23.1 23.7 25.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 24.2 25.1 21.5 2.0 84.2 76.8 22.2 23.0 23.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 24.5 25.1 24.9 2.0 81.9 78.4 22.3 23.3 23.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 13.8 14.4 21.9 2.0 82.9 77.4 12.1 13.0 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 25.0 25.7 24.0 2.1 83.1 78.3 22.8 23.4 24.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 24.8 25.5 22.6 2.0 83.1 77.8 22.1 23.3 24.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 24.9 25.6 23.2 2.1 82.7 78.1 22.9 23.5 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 24.4 25.0 22.9 2.1 83.1 77.8 22.0 23.1 24.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 25.4 26.0 22.7 2.1 83.4 77.4 23.1 23.9 25.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 25.1 26.3 23.6 2.1 83.2 78.5 22.4 23.5 24.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 25.3 25.9 23.9 1.8 82.3 76.1 22.9 24.0 24.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 25.7 26.5 23.1 2.1 82.9 77.4 23.9 24.3 25.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 24.0 24.7 24.6 2.0 83.2 79.0 22.0 22.8 23.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 23.8 24.3 21.8 2.0 81.5 77.4 21.7 22.4 23.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 24.4 25.2 25.1 2.1 82.7 78.7 22.5 23.3 24.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 19.8 20.3 19.7 1.8 80.3 76.2 17.9 18.8 19.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 25.1 25.8 24.6 2.0 81.2 77.3 22.7 23.3 24.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 24.8 26.1 24.6 2.0 84.8 78.8 22.9 23.5 24.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 24.6 25.5 25.1 2.2 83.6 79.9 22.6 23.5 23.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 24.8 25.4 23.5 2.1 82.4 78.5 22.4 23.0 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 24.7 25.8 23.6 2.0 81.4 77.8 22.9 23.3 24.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 25.1 25.6 22.4 1.8 77.6 75.0 22.7 24.2 24.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 24.5 25.4 24.3 2.1 83.0 78.8 22.6 23.2 23.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 25.3 25.8 23.5 1.7 80.7 74.3 23.3 23.8 24.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 19.1 19.9 20.9 1.9 81.4 77.2 17.3 17.6 18.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 24.6 25.3 25.1 2.0 81.9 78.3 22.5 23.2 24.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------