***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2012.-30.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 9999.0 0.0 22.7 1.3 68.2 60.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 22.8 23.7 22.3 0.9 63.8 57.9 21.4 22.2 23.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 23.3 23.9 22.7 1.2 66.1 60.3 21.1 22.7 23.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 17.1 16.9 21.1 1.2 67.9 61.6 14.3 15.8 16.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 24.8 24.5 21.3 1.3 67.6 61.8 21.3 23.2 24.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 23.6 24.2 19.5 1.5 72.9 63.3 20.8 21.8 23.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 22.4 22.9 22.2 0.9 64.7 58.0 21.0 21.8 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 12.7 12.8 19.8 1.3 66.3 61.1 10.7 12.4 12.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 23.1 24.4 21.6 1.4 67.2 61.9 21.0 22.5 24.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 22.7 24.0 20.5 1.4 65.8 61.3 20.3 22.0 24.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 24.3 24.7 21.1 1.5 68.3 62.7 20.9 22.8 24.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 22.7 23.8 20.8 1.4 68.4 62.0 20.3 22.1 23.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 24.9 25.2 20.4 1.5 69.9 62.2 21.0 23.0 24.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 23.0 23.6 21.2 1.2 63.3 58.7 21.0 22.2 23.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 24.5 23.5 21.5 1.3 69.8 62.7 21.6 22.9 23.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 25.4 25.6 20.8 1.5 69.6 62.4 21.7 23.6 25.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 22.1 22.3 21.8 0.8 63.3 57.2 20.9 21.5 22.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 21.6 22.5 19.7 1.3 62.0 59.7 20.1 20.8 23.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 22.5 23.7 22.5 1.0 64.4 58.3 21.2 21.9 23.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 18.4 18.5 17.5 1.1 61.8 58.6 16.2 17.9 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 23.5 24.1 22.3 1.3 66.9 61.1 20.8 23.1 24.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 22.8 23.4 21.9 0.8 63.4 57.2 21.5 22.2 24.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 22.7 23.9 22.5 1.2 66.2 59.1 21.2 22.2 23.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 22.9 23.5 21.3 1.3 63.4 60.1 21.2 22.3 23.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 22.5 23.7 21.3 1.3 69.2 61.6 20.7 22.0 23.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 24.0 24.6 20.2 1.2 68.8 60.8 21.3 22.2 24.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 22.5 23.8 21.8 1.2 68.5 60.7 21.1 22.0 23.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 24.3 24.3 21.4 1.2 68.7 61.8 21.5 23.2 24.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.2 18.6 18.8 1.2 61.5 59.0 15.6 16.5 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 22.6 23.2 22.5 1.0 65.0 58.8 21.2 22.0 23.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------