***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2012.-23.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 9999.0 0.0 24.6 1.8 72.2 68.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 43 57 100 24.7 25.4 24.6 1.8 73.3 68.5 21.9 22.9 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 24.8 25.4 24.6 1.9 72.9 68.8 22.4 23.2 25.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 18.2 17.6 22.8 1.6 67.8 66.1 15.6 16.9 17.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 25.7 25.5 23.0 1.8 70.5 67.7 23.3 24.8 25.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 24.9 25.1 20.9 1.5 69.1 65.3 21.7 23.7 24.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 24.3 25.3 24.4 1.8 74.6 68.3 21.7 22.3 24.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 14.3 14.7 21.4 1.8 72.3 67.8 12.3 13.2 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 25.4 24.9 23.4 1.9 71.1 68.7 22.9 24.1 24.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 25.0 25.2 22.1 1.9 72.0 68.4 22.0 23.8 25.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 25.4 25.6 22.7 1.9 71.7 68.5 22.9 24.4 25.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 24.8 24.4 22.4 1.8 71.6 67.7 22.4 24.0 24.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 25.8 25.9 21.9 1.7 69.5 65.7 22.9 25.2 25.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 25.5 26.3 23.2 2.1 74.3 69.7 21.3 23.1 24.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 25.4 25.4 23.2 1.6 68.8 66.9 22.5 24.3 25.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 26.3 26.3 22.4 1.8 70.8 66.7 23.6 25.5 26.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 23.8 24.7 24.2 1.9 75.5 69.5 20.9 22.1 23.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 24.2 24.9 21.4 1.9 72.8 68.0 21.1 22.9 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 24.2 24.9 24.7 1.9 73.4 69.1 21.6 22.6 24.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 20.5 20.7 19.3 1.7 71.3 66.6 17.9 19.1 20.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 25.2 25.1 24.0 1.8 70.3 68.1 22.7 24.0 25.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 24.6 25.6 24.3 1.9 74.6 69.6 21.3 22.6 24.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 24.8 25.4 24.6 2.1 73.9 70.1 21.9 22.9 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 25.1 25.5 23.1 2.0 74.3 69.3 21.8 23.3 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 24.6 24.7 23.1 1.8 70.1 68.2 22.4 23.4 24.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 25.0 26.0 21.8 1.4 66.5 63.6 22.5 24.7 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 24.7 25.0 23.7 1.8 71.4 68.3 22.0 22.9 24.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 25.8 25.8 23.0 1.5 68.0 65.7 22.4 24.9 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 20.0 20.2 20.5 1.8 72.5 67.7 17.4 18.9 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 24.6 24.9 24.7 1.8 72.6 68.3 21.9 22.7 24.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------