***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2012.-16.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 9999.0 0.0 25.5 2.1 78.2 70.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 26.9 28.0 25.6 2.2 79.3 71.1 22.5 25.1 26.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 26.7 27.2 25.6 2.1 77.4 70.7 22.8 25.5 26.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 19.4 19.6 23.7 1.5 68.5 66.0 14.9 17.8 19.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 27.0 27.0 23.8 1.7 70.9 67.0 23.1 25.9 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 25.7 25.7 21.7 1.5 69.6 64.6 22.2 24.6 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 26.4 27.1 25.4 2.1 78.5 71.1 22.1 25.1 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 15.2 15.3 22.2 1.8 71.3 67.8 12.6 14.1 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 26.8 26.9 24.1 1.9 71.6 68.3 22.7 25.9 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 26.2 26.2 22.9 1.9 72.2 68.2 23.0 25.0 25.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 26.7 27.0 23.4 1.9 73.2 68.0 22.9 25.5 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 25.9 26.0 23.2 1.8 71.1 67.7 22.7 24.9 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 26.9 26.9 22.7 1.7 68.9 65.7 23.7 26.1 26.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 26.6 27.2 24.1 2.2 78.7 71.0 22.7 24.9 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 27.0 27.2 24.2 1.5 71.3 66.4 22.7 25.6 26.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 27.5 27.6 23.1 1.7 69.6 66.4 24.0 26.5 27.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 26.0 27.0 25.2 2.2 79.1 72.4 21.5 24.4 25.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 25.3 25.3 22.2 2.0 72.9 68.7 22.0 24.0 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 26.6 27.4 25.7 2.2 79.8 71.5 22.5 24.8 26.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 21.5 21.5 20.1 1.8 70.8 67.7 18.7 20.5 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 26.7 26.6 24.9 1.9 71.5 68.5 22.6 25.5 26.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 26.5 27.6 25.3 2.3 79.4 72.5 22.2 24.9 25.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 26.4 27.1 25.6 2.3 79.9 72.0 22.6 24.6 26.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 26.0 26.2 23.9 2.1 76.4 70.3 22.5 25.2 26.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 26.4 27.1 24.0 1.9 76.9 69.0 22.5 24.9 26.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 26.7 26.4 22.6 1.4 68.1 63.9 23.9 25.4 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 26.5 27.2 24.6 2.0 78.0 69.9 22.3 25.4 26.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 26.7 26.7 23.9 1.4 68.1 64.9 23.1 25.7 26.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 20.7 21.0 21.3 2.0 73.7 68.7 17.5 19.2 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 26.3 27.1 25.7 2.1 78.9 70.9 22.4 24.8 26.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------