***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2012.-09.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 12 88 100 9999.0 0.0 27.7 3.4 87.9 84.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 12 88 100 27.1 28.9 27.4 3.2 86.7 82.5 22.8 24.4 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 26.8 28.1 27.5 3.1 86.1 81.7 22.9 24.2 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 14 86 100 19.6 20.8 25.0 2.6 86.2 80.8 15.8 17.1 17.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 14 86 100 27.3 28.8 25.9 3.0 86.2 81.6 23.3 24.6 26.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 7 93 100 25.8 28.0 23.9 3.3 86.9 84.8 22.4 23.5 24.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 26.8 28.3 27.4 3.3 86.7 83.7 22.4 23.6 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 14 86 100 15.5 16.6 24.0 3.0 83.4 80.4 12.0 13.2 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 27.0 28.5 26.8 3.1 86.4 82.4 22.8 24.7 26.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 13 87 100 26.1 27.6 24.9 3.0 84.6 81.0 22.8 24.2 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 11 89 100 27.1 28.3 25.8 3.1 85.5 82.2 23.0 24.3 26.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 9 91 100 25.8 27.8 25.2 3.2 84.6 82.2 22.3 23.4 25.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 3 97 100 26.8 28.9 25.8 3.7 87.2 85.0 23.5 24.5 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 26.6 27.6 25.9 2.8 85.4 79.1 23.2 24.6 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 8 92 100 27.0 28.3 26.9 2.8 87.0 82.7 23.7 24.9 25.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 7 93 100 27.6 29.2 25.8 3.3 86.7 83.7 23.9 25.0 27.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 10 90 100 26.8 28.0 27.0 3.2 87.5 83.5 22.4 23.5 25.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 25.8 27.0 23.9 2.8 84.7 78.9 21.9 23.3 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 11 89 100 26.9 28.2 27.5 3.2 87.2 82.4 22.7 24.1 25.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 21.5 22.9 21.7 2.7 81.5 77.2 18.3 19.1 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 27.1 28.1 27.2 2.8 86.2 80.6 22.9 24.5 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 10 90 100 27.2 28.2 26.8 3.0 86.5 81.8 22.9 24.4 26.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 10 90 100 27.3 28.2 27.5 3.3 88.0 83.0 22.7 24.4 25.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 26.5 27.6 25.7 2.9 86.5 80.0 22.9 24.2 25.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 14 86 100 27.1 28.2 26.1 3.0 87.1 82.0 23.0 23.9 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 9 91 100 26.7 28.8 25.0 3.3 86.0 83.5 23.1 24.6 25.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 27.0 28.5 26.9 3.2 87.5 83.5 22.7 23.6 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 27.0 28.0 25.8 2.6 85.4 81.1 24.2 24.9 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 20.9 22.4 23.1 2.8 84.6 78.2 17.9 18.8 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 13 87 100 26.6 28.7 27.6 3.2 86.4 82.7 22.6 23.7 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------