***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2012.-30.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 9999.0 0.0 15.1 1.7 85.8 80.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 12.3 13.0 14.8 1.6 83.0 79.7 10.7 11.1 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 14.4 15.3 14.9 1.7 86.3 82.2 12.7 13.2 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 9.5 9.9 12.6 1.3 81.4 77.1 8.2 8.6 9.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 11.2 11.7 12.7 1.5 83.5 79.6 9.5 10.1 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 10.1 10.7 10.9 1.5 84.4 80.4 8.8 9.2 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 12.3 12.7 14.9 1.6 82.1 79.3 11.0 11.3 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 5.8 6.2 11.0 1.5 84.9 80.6 4.3 4.9 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 12.1 12.8 13.2 1.6 86.5 82.2 10.8 11.1 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 11.9 12.4 11.6 1.5 85.3 81.2 10.3 10.8 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 11.4 12.0 12.3 1.6 87.5 82.2 10.2 10.3 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 10.1 10.8 11.8 1.5 86.6 81.1 8.7 9.2 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 10.9 11.3 11.2 1.4 83.5 79.1 9.6 10.2 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 12.6 13.4 13.3 1.7 87.4 82.3 10.8 11.5 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 12.5 12.8 13.6 1.5 83.2 79.7 11.1 11.7 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 12.1 12.9 11.9 1.5 83.9 80.4 10.7 11.1 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 12.3 13.0 14.4 1.5 83.6 79.1 10.9 11.3 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 10.7 11.7 10.9 1.5 84.8 80.5 9.0 9.6 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 12.2 13.1 14.9 1.7 85.6 81.2 10.7 11.3 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 6.9 7.2 9.2 1.3 80.1 76.7 5.5 6.0 6.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 11.6 12.6 14.3 1.6 84.9 80.7 10.2 10.8 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 11.6 12.1 14.5 1.6 86.4 80.5 9.9 10.5 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 11.9 13.2 14.9 1.9 90.0 84.0 10.1 10.6 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 16 84 100 12.2 12.7 13.1 1.7 88.4 83.5 10.3 10.8 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 12.1 12.7 13.6 1.6 85.7 79.9 10.4 11.4 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 10.7 11.0 11.2 1.2 78.1 75.2 9.8 10.0 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 12.7 13.4 14.3 1.6 84.3 79.3 11.1 11.6 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 10.5 10.9 12.9 1.3 80.5 76.8 9.3 9.6 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 9.8 10.2 10.4 1.5 86.0 81.5 8.1 8.8 9.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 12.5 13.0 15.1 1.6 84.1 80.0 11.3 11.8 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------