***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2012.-30.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 12.9 0.9 64.2 60.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 11.0 11.1 12.6 0.7 61.6 59.2 9.3 10.7 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 13.0 13.2 12.7 0.9 65.0 61.4 11.5 12.9 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 9.4 9.2 10.5 0.7 64.5 59.9 6.6 8.1 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 11.0 10.6 10.5 0.8 65.3 60.6 8.2 10.0 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.2 9.3 8.9 0.9 65.2 62.5 7.8 9.0 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 10.9 11.1 12.6 0.7 60.7 58.8 9.5 10.6 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 5.1 4.8 9.0 0.9 67.8 62.3 3.8 4.4 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 11.3 11.1 11.0 0.9 67.0 61.8 9.7 10.2 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 11.0 10.6 9.5 0.9 68.4 62.2 9.5 10.0 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 11.0 10.6 10.2 0.9 67.5 62.4 9.1 9.8 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 9.8 9.8 9.8 0.9 67.8 62.4 8.1 8.8 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 8.6 10.4 9.1 0.9 66.1 62.0 8.2 9.7 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 10.9 11.0 11.1 1.0 67.4 62.9 9.9 10.6 10.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 11.7 11.4 11.3 0.9 67.3 63.2 9.8 10.9 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.9 11.2 9.7 0.9 65.6 61.8 9.9 10.5 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 10.6 10.8 12.1 0.6 59.5 57.1 9.6 10.2 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 9.9 9.9 8.9 0.9 67.5 62.4 8.0 9.1 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 10.6 11.0 12.6 0.9 62.4 60.7 9.3 10.3 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 5.8 6.0 7.5 0.8 64.5 60.3 4.4 5.4 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 10.6 10.5 12.0 0.8 65.2 60.1 9.1 10.2 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 9.8 10.1 12.2 0.7 60.9 59.0 8.9 9.5 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 10.5 10.5 12.5 1.1 64.9 62.8 9.1 10.3 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 10.7 10.5 10.9 1.0 66.7 63.3 9.3 10.0 10.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 11.7 11.5 11.3 0.9 65.8 60.6 9.6 10.9 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.9 10.1 9.5 0.9 66.2 61.4 9.0 9.6 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 11.8 12.3 12.1 0.9 63.9 60.4 9.2 11.5 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.5 9.8 10.8 0.8 64.4 60.9 8.1 9.2 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.9 8.4 0.9 67.0 62.1 7.1 8.3 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 11.1 11.5 12.8 0.8 61.5 60.0 10.0 10.8 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------