***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2012.-23.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 9999.0 0.0 14.0 0.9 73.0 63.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 12.0 12.1 13.9 0.9 70.3 64.5 9.8 11.1 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 14.3 14.7 13.8 1.0 74.5 65.8 12.2 12.9 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 9.6 9.5 11.8 0.8 64.3 62.6 7.6 8.6 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 11.0 11.1 11.7 0.9 69.8 63.7 9.5 10.5 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 10.7 10.1 10.1 0.9 68.4 63.6 8.4 9.4 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 12.3 12.4 13.8 0.9 70.7 63.9 10.1 11.5 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 6.0 5.9 10.1 0.8 65.2 63.6 4.6 5.7 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 11.9 11.6 12.1 0.9 68.6 64.6 10.5 11.5 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 11.7 11.6 10.6 0.8 66.0 63.4 10.2 11.2 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 11.3 11.4 11.4 1.0 73.0 65.7 9.7 10.7 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 10.5 10.1 10.9 0.9 67.8 64.3 8.6 9.4 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 11.0 10.7 10.2 0.7 65.4 62.1 9.3 10.2 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 12.1 12.1 12.3 1.0 72.7 66.8 10.8 11.4 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 12.5 12.5 12.5 0.9 70.3 64.4 10.6 11.9 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 12.0 12.2 10.9 0.9 71.1 64.1 10.6 11.2 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 12.4 12.4 13.4 0.8 68.7 64.1 10.2 11.5 12.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 10.4 10.9 10.0 0.8 62.8 63.0 9.5 10.1 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 12.5 12.1 13.9 1.0 71.9 65.8 10.2 11.7 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 6.5 6.5 8.6 0.7 61.8 61.2 5.6 6.3 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 11.6 11.3 13.1 0.9 69.4 64.1 10.3 10.9 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 11.6 11.6 13.5 1.0 71.2 66.0 9.3 10.5 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 11.6 12.1 13.7 1.2 75.1 67.8 9.8 10.5 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 11.5 11.4 12.0 1.0 70.7 66.1 10.2 10.8 11.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 11.8 12.2 12.5 0.9 68.3 62.9 10.4 11.6 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 11.2 10.7 10.4 0.7 63.2 60.5 9.3 10.2 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 11.8 12.6 13.2 0.8 68.8 62.3 9.7 11.6 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 10.8 10.6 12.0 0.8 66.6 62.9 8.7 9.8 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 9.1 9.4 9.6 0.8 65.1 64.2 7.9 8.8 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 12.6 12.9 14.0 0.9 71.8 64.4 10.0 11.7 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------