***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2012.-16.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 9999.0 0.0 15.3 1.4 73.1 68.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 47 53 100 12.5 12.6 15.2 1.4 72.2 68.1 10.8 11.9 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 14.2 15.5 15.1 1.5 75.9 68.8 13.0 14.0 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 45 55 100 11.0 10.4 12.9 1.0 66.3 65.2 8.5 9.6 10.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 11.5 11.6 12.8 1.2 69.3 66.4 9.3 10.4 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 10.8 11.0 11.3 1.3 70.9 68.7 8.0 9.7 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 11.9 13.0 15.2 1.4 72.3 68.1 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 6.9 6.9 11.3 1.3 71.6 68.5 4.3 5.8 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 47 53 100 12.5 12.8 13.3 1.3 72.9 68.0 11.1 12.0 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 12.4 12.5 11.8 1.2 70.4 67.6 10.2 11.5 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 11.9 12.2 12.5 1.3 72.8 69.0 9.6 11.1 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 10.7 10.9 12.1 1.3 72.7 69.5 8.3 9.8 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 11.1 11.5 11.4 1.2 70.9 67.6 8.8 10.2 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 13.0 13.2 13.5 1.5 76.1 70.5 10.9 12.2 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 44 56 100 13.1 13.5 13.7 1.1 68.9 66.9 10.6 12.4 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 12.7 12.7 12.1 1.2 70.9 68.0 10.5 11.5 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 47 53 100 13.1 12.8 14.7 1.4 69.9 68.1 11.2 12.0 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 43 57 100 11.3 11.2 11.1 1.2 68.6 67.2 8.9 10.2 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 44 56 100 12.6 12.9 15.1 1.5 73.7 68.9 10.9 11.9 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 7.5 7.4 9.6 1.0 67.5 65.7 5.0 6.2 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 11.6 12.3 14.4 1.3 73.4 67.7 10.5 11.4 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 12.0 12.3 14.7 1.4 71.2 69.1 10.1 11.3 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 12.1 12.6 15.0 1.6 76.4 70.9 10.5 11.4 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 12.4 12.6 13.2 1.4 74.1 69.5 10.4 11.1 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 12.1 12.7 13.7 1.3 71.2 67.5 10.6 11.9 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 10.4 11.7 11.4 0.9 65.7 63.2 9.1 10.1 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 12.6 13.5 14.4 1.3 72.0 67.2 10.9 12.4 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 46 54 100 11.4 11.0 13.2 1.1 66.4 65.8 8.5 10.8 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 10.5 10.8 10.7 1.3 72.2 68.7 8.5 9.2 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 47 53 100 12.8 13.0 15.3 1.4 73.3 68.1 11.1 12.2 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------