***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2012.-09.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 9999.0 0.0 18.4 3.7 91.3 91.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 13.4 14.3 17.7 3.3 90.0 89.0 10.2 11.8 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 2 98 100 15.9 16.8 18.1 3.6 92.5 91.3 12.5 13.5 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 11.3 12.8 15.3 2.8 88.3 87.2 7.5 8.6 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 1 99 100 12.2 13.2 15.7 3.0 90.1 88.9 10.0 10.8 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 1 99 100 11.5 11.9 13.3 2.8 87.6 87.9 9.4 10.0 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 13.4 14.0 17.9 3.3 89.3 89.0 10.9 12.0 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 2 98 100 7.2 8.2 13.5 2.9 89.8 87.8 3.7 5.1 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 13.2 14.8 16.5 3.3 93.2 91.9 10.7 11.9 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 2 98 100 12.9 14.3 14.6 3.1 91.8 89.7 10.9 12.1 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 1 99 100 12.5 14.1 15.3 3.1 92.4 90.2 10.7 11.6 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 11.1 11.9 14.3 2.9 88.7 87.8 9.0 10.2 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 11.9 13.1 14.0 2.8 88.5 88.4 10.1 11.0 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 2 98 100 13.9 14.7 16.3 3.1 89.0 88.8 11.4 12.0 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 1 99 100 13.8 14.4 16.9 3.0 90.4 89.7 12.2 12.9 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 1 99 100 13.4 14.3 14.7 2.9 89.5 89.0 11.2 12.2 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 13.9 14.4 17.2 3.2 89.3 88.9 11.5 12.2 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 3 97 100 12.1 12.8 13.6 2.9 88.7 87.7 9.9 10.5 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 13.5 14.6 17.9 3.4 91.9 90.3 10.9 11.6 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 4 96 100 8.4 8.7 11.2 2.5 85.2 84.6 5.9 6.9 7.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 1 99 100 13.2 13.7 17.6 3.3 91.4 90.4 10.5 11.6 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 2 98 100 13.0 13.4 17.5 3.2 88.9 89.0 10.8 11.2 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 13.2 14.2 18.1 3.7 93.9 92.4 10.4 10.9 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 2 98 100 13.3 13.8 16.1 3.3 92.2 90.4 10.8 12.1 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 1 99 100 13.9 14.7 17.1 3.4 90.9 89.9 10.7 11.2 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 12.0 12.5 13.4 2.5 85.7 83.8 10.3 11.2 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 13.6 16.6 17.4 3.4 90.4 89.5 10.5 11.5 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 11.9 12.2 15.7 2.6 87.0 86.1 9.9 10.8 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 3 97 100 11.2 12.3 12.9 2.9 89.9 88.8 7.8 9.2 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 13.6 15.5 18.1 3.4 90.7 89.6 10.9 12.0 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------