***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2019.-29.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 57.3 51.6 41.5 94.8 57.0 49.9 30.5 50.5 61.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 46.0 42.2 39.4 95.6 57.1 50.5 29.3 40.7 58.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 52.6 48.4 41.2 92.9 55.3 49.9 30.7 47.7 56.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 65.8 59.2 42.9 91.7 54.9 48.5 32.5 57.8 79.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 49.0 47.2 43.0 99.7 59.5 52.2 29.3 42.1 55.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 30.0 43.5 42.8 87.1 51.0 45.5 26.7 43.0 58.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 49.8 52.2 39.5 94.9 56.8 49.6 34.1 43.8 59.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 78.8 71.0 48.2 96.3 53.0 49.6 52.2 69.1 88.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 50.6 49.5 43.6 98.3 57.9 52.1 30.4 45.9 58.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 57.2 57.4 50.5 99.3 56.5 51.9 31.5 50.9 65.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 47.8 46.1 42.0 98.8 54.7 51.4 32.2 43.6 62.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 50.3 43.3 38.8 92.7 50.8 48.3 29.6 43.3 63.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 48.3 45.7 41.1 94.2 52.9 49.0 28.8 43.6 51.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 70.6 63.9 54.2 97.5 57.0 52.1 45.2 60.8 69.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 40.2 34.7 38.6 88.3 54.3 48.1 21.6 31.3 56.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 40.3 38.6 40.2 94.2 54.9 49.3 24.3 35.4 50.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 49.4 51.4 40.1 96.8 56.8 50.9 31.8 45.9 53.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 69.6 72.2 56.0 100.0 56.3 52.2 44.5 63.2 76.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 51.2 52.8 40.1 94.9 57.0 50.5 31.3 45.1 67.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 74.1 77.7 62.6 103.7 55.9 52.4 58.6 68.7 82.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 59.6 62.4 42.2 96.5 56.9 51.3 29.4 54.3 68.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 46.7 45.6 42.3 95.2 56.0 50.4 33.6 40.8 56.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 48.0 43.8 41.6 94.0 56.8 50.8 32.0 40.9 50.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 69.4 67.3 49.6 96.4 55.6 51.4 37.4 64.1 77.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 53.8 55.3 46.3 97.6 56.0 50.6 34.8 48.8 67.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 39.3 35.1 38.7 94.6 52.4 49.0 25.8 34.9 47.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 49.3 44.9 44.4 95.2 55.3 49.6 33.7 42.7 60.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 41.5 35.5 40.0 89.1 54.6 47.9 22.0 33.3 50.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 100.0 108.5 59.4 102.4 57.0 53.1 59.4 90.1 128.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 46.1 45.4 39.9 94.5 56.7 50.1 27.1 41.5 50.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------