***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2019.-29.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 2.7 10.2 7.7 71.4 55.2 43.7 3.0 6.2 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 8.1 6.8 6.3 61.9 52.8 42.3 2.6 5.9 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.9 9.7 7.6 70.5 54.4 42.4 4.4 7.8 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 5.0 13.2 8.8 80.0 59.1 44.8 7.1 9.6 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.0 8.4 8.5 84.5 58.1 44.1 3.5 6.6 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.6 8.3 9.7 89.7 59.9 47.3 2.6 5.4 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.1 4.5 6.5 62.8 53.7 41.8 2.8 4.3 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 6.0 15.7 11.1 99.3 61.3 47.8 6.5 12.8 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.2 10.4 8.9 84.9 57.3 44.9 2.1 7.1 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 5.1 18.7 11.0 94.6 59.0 46.1 3.4 11.0 20.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.2 15.2 9.0 96.4 63.0 47.1 3.0 7.0 17.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 2.3 8.0 9.1 97.5 63.4 48.5 1.7 5.1 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.7 8.9 9.2 92.7 61.2 48.9 2.5 6.3 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.9 11.2 10.1 76.3 53.1 43.9 5.2 11.0 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 2.3 8.6 8.9 87.1 65.4 44.6 3.0 5.6 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.7 7.6 8.7 91.0 61.6 48.0 3.3 5.6 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.5 6.8 7.2 70.4 55.5 42.9 2.0 6.3 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 3.8 13.1 12.3 95.6 58.6 46.1 3.5 7.9 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 9.7 7.5 6.6 63.2 52.8 42.3 3.3 7.3 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 4.2 16.1 14.7 102.6 61.0 48.0 6.6 9.0 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 2.7 9.1 8.4 80.1 56.4 43.2 3.9 5.8 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.1 9.5 8.0 73.8 56.9 44.7 2.9 8.6 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 11.9 10.0 7.1 65.7 52.7 43.0 4.2 9.0 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.1 8.9 10.2 82.7 55.5 44.5 3.5 8.2 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 4.0 10.4 8.9 75.9 58.0 42.1 4.7 8.2 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 11.3 10.1 8.9 93.2 60.2 49.0 2.1 7.9 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 2.9 10.7 8.3 72.4 56.8 42.2 3.5 7.3 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 2.6 11.8 8.7 84.8 62.0 45.6 1.3 5.9 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 6.5 17.9 13.2 99.6 60.3 47.2 6.9 10.4 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.8 6.3 6.6 63.1 53.1 42.9 2.5 5.6 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------