***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2019.-22.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 3.1 14.1 12.0 111.6 67.2 53.1 1.0 6.5 13.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 8.2 10.6 11.4 120.3 69.8 56.0 3.2 6.3 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.1 14.7 11.9 113.1 69.2 55.1 1.9 6.3 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.2 13.0 11.8 102.9 69.6 54.6 2.1 4.5 12.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 2.2 16.2 12.5 115.1 71.7 56.5 0.5 4.4 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 8.5 10.1 11.4 91.2 65.1 52.3 1.8 5.9 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 10.2 13.7 11.1 115.0 68.6 53.9 2.6 7.6 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 17.6 24.4 13.3 111.2 67.8 55.3 4.6 12.4 23.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.0 14.3 12.8 114.4 70.4 55.1 1.3 6.2 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.8 14.2 14.1 115.2 69.4 55.7 5.2 6.8 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.1 18.6 11.6 111.3 69.5 56.4 0.7 3.9 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 9.2 14.7 11.0 105.6 67.2 55.0 0.4 6.8 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 9.2 11.5 11.0 98.5 68.4 53.1 1.4 6.5 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.9 20.1 15.8 120.7 69.0 57.6 1.5 9.0 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.4 12.7 9.2 86.5 68.4 52.5 0.2 2.2 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 6.4 7.6 11.2 102.8 69.4 55.7 0.6 3.3 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.0 11.8 10.6 106.1 67.5 53.8 4.0 6.4 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 3.7 23.9 15.9 121.9 69.2 56.9 1.7 7.9 21.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 9.1 13.6 11.7 119.7 69.2 57.0 2.0 5.9 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 17.7 23.6 18.1 123.1 67.6 54.7 6.7 14.5 22.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 2.2 18.4 12.3 113.9 69.6 55.0 1.1 4.8 17.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.7 13.4 11.5 102.7 65.4 54.3 3.3 6.9 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 8.3 13.9 12.1 116.3 68.4 57.3 1.9 4.9 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 3.0 19.5 14.4 119.0 69.1 56.8 2.3 6.3 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 4.0 16.2 12.7 108.6 67.8 52.2 1.6 8.4 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 9.9 18.6 11.2 108.8 70.2 52.9 1.1 7.9 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.5 12.2 12.6 111.4 67.4 51.3 0.8 7.2 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.4 14.7 10.7 94.8 69.5 54.7 0.4 3.3 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.7 29.6 16.8 123.4 68.8 56.6 6.4 16.0 27.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.6 12.7 11.5 117.5 69.6 54.9 0.7 5.6 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------