***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2019.-15.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 17.4 24.9 14.4 128.1 72.5 58.5 1.5 13.2 24.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 13.5 22.2 14.5 129.5 71.2 59.8 2.4 11.0 21.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 13.5 29.6 14.6 122.0 71.4 58.0 2.5 8.0 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 15.9 22.4 14.7 116.7 74.0 58.9 1.6 13.6 18.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.7 19.4 14.0 122.6 74.8 57.7 0.6 8.9 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.9 11.3 14.2 101.5 66.9 53.3 1.4 4.9 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 11.5 18.7 14.7 130.1 72.3 59.8 2.9 7.4 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 18.5 24.1 14.7 115.6 66.8 55.3 5.4 14.9 23.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 12.6 20.2 14.1 119.4 70.7 58.2 3.1 10.4 18.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 12.9 16.4 15.7 120.8 69.7 57.9 3.1 11.2 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 9.3 17.5 13.5 118.5 71.4 55.4 0.4 6.0 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 9.3 13.9 12.0 109.9 66.6 53.7 2.0 6.6 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 7.2 15.9 13.3 116.3 70.7 55.9 1.9 4.2 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.7 30.4 18.2 124.5 71.1 59.3 2.9 7.4 24.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 5.0 14.5 13.7 111.3 74.8 58.4 0.2 2.4 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 8.7 12.9 13.2 115.5 70.3 55.7 1.1 6.6 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 15.9 25.6 15.2 136.0 72.9 60.8 1.7 12.4 22.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 14.8 20.0 16.7 115.3 67.1 56.7 3.6 10.6 18.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 12.2 24.6 14.4 127.0 70.4 59.3 2.6 8.4 18.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 19.5 25.2 16.8 110.9 65.7 56.1 6.1 16.0 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 13.3 24.9 14.3 122.7 72.6 58.3 2.5 8.1 24.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 23.6 22.5 15.4 129.1 71.3 60.5 3.6 10.3 21.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 11.7 23.3 14.6 124.4 71.4 58.4 2.9 7.6 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 15.4 26.3 16.2 119.1 70.3 57.2 2.1 10.1 21.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 13.4 31.2 16.4 132.6 74.9 59.5 2.4 7.4 24.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 1.2 5.5 11.9 101.4 66.1 50.4 0.6 2.5 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 16.4 33.4 15.7 128.9 72.7 59.1 1.2 10.6 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 8.0 15.5 13.7 112.8 73.8 58.5 0.5 5.4 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 27.2 30.5 17.1 112.9 64.3 56.2 7.9 23.5 30.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 12.8 15.2 14.6 126.4 72.2 59.3 3.1 10.3 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------