***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2019.-29.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 24.4 24.3 25.0 1.2 70.5 67.3 22.7 23.5 23.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 24.1 24.5 24.7 0.9 66.9 62.9 22.9 23.8 24.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 23.8 24.8 25.0 1.0 65.5 63.3 23.1 23.5 24.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 17.8 18.4 22.9 1.6 78.9 73.2 15.8 16.6 17.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 24.1 25.2 23.3 0.9 66.1 63.3 23.4 23.8 25.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 24.2 24.5 21.6 1.3 75.0 70.5 22.3 23.2 23.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 24.3 24.5 24.7 1.0 69.2 64.2 22.5 23.4 24.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 13.2 13.6 21.6 0.7 63.7 61.0 12.2 13.0 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 23.9 24.5 23.8 0.9 65.7 63.3 23.1 23.5 24.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 23.9 24.2 22.3 0.9 66.7 64.1 22.4 23.6 24.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 24.1 24.6 23.3 0.6 62.2 60.1 23.0 23.8 24.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 23.5 23.9 22.8 0.7 62.4 60.9 22.2 23.2 24.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 24.4 24.9 22.8 0.7 61.4 61.6 23.2 24.1 25.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 24.1 24.0 22.8 0.3 57.7 54.9 22.6 23.7 24.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 25.1 25.4 24.5 1.4 75.3 70.6 23.2 24.1 24.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 25.6 25.7 23.2 0.9 66.5 64.1 24.0 24.5 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 23.2 23.8 24.2 0.8 64.5 61.9 22.2 23.0 23.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 22.8 23.3 21.5 0.8 64.5 62.0 22.0 22.5 23.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 23.7 24.2 24.8 0.8 64.5 61.4 22.8 23.4 24.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 19.1 19.4 19.1 0.5 60.1 57.8 18.1 18.9 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 23.9 24.8 24.5 1.0 67.2 63.7 23.0 23.5 24.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 24.0 24.5 24.1 0.7 63.4 60.9 23.1 23.7 24.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 23.9 23.9 24.6 0.5 58.6 57.0 22.9 23.6 24.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 23.4 24.1 23.2 0.7 63.4 60.3 22.7 23.0 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 24.6 24.4 23.6 1.3 71.3 68.3 23.2 23.4 24.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 24.5 24.8 22.3 0.6 61.1 59.8 22.8 24.4 24.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 24.5 24.7 24.3 1.3 72.3 69.0 22.8 23.4 24.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 25.1 25.6 23.6 1.5 76.8 71.7 23.5 23.9 25.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 18.2 18.8 20.5 0.5 62.0 58.6 17.4 17.8 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 24.4 24.5 24.8 1.0 68.1 63.6 22.8 23.3 24.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------