***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2019.-29.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 23.3 23.4 22.9 0.8 61.2 54.6 21.3 23.0 23.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 23.5 23.6 22.7 0.6 59.3 53.1 21.6 22.9 24.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 23.7 23.5 23.1 0.6 59.8 52.8 21.2 23.1 24.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.9 21.0 1.1 67.0 58.0 14.7 16.0 16.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 24.3 24.3 21.4 0.6 57.8 53.0 21.4 23.7 25.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 23.0 23.5 19.7 1.0 64.1 57.5 20.8 22.5 23.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 23.1 23.1 22.6 0.6 59.5 53.7 21.2 22.5 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.8 20.1 0.5 54.8 52.3 11.2 12.3 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 24.1 23.6 21.8 0.7 58.5 53.5 21.1 23.4 24.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 23.5 23.3 20.7 0.7 57.3 53.4 20.4 22.7 24.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 24.2 24.0 21.4 0.5 55.6 52.2 20.9 23.6 24.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 23.5 23.3 21.2 0.5 55.0 52.6 20.3 22.9 24.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 24.2 24.7 20.6 0.7 57.9 54.3 21.1 23.7 25.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 20.6 22.4 21.1 0.2 50.5 49.3 21.5 22.3 25.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 23.6 24.3 21.8 1.1 65.4 58.3 22.1 23.2 24.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 24.7 25.1 21.2 0.8 60.7 54.9 21.8 24.1 25.3 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 20.4 22.7 22.3 0.6 58.3 53.3 21.2 21.9 23.7 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 19.7 21.7 20.2 0.6 54.5 52.6 20.1 21.4 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 23.5 23.1 22.9 0.5 57.5 52.4 21.1 22.7 24.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 18.4 17.9 17.8 0.4 52.1 51.0 16.4 17.8 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 23.9 24.2 22.4 0.6 59.0 53.2 21.0 23.3 24.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 23.8 23.5 22.4 0.6 56.8 53.4 21.3 23.2 24.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 20.9 23.1 22.9 0.3 53.9 50.3 21.4 23.0 24.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 20.8 22.9 21.4 0.5 55.5 51.7 21.3 22.4 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 23.4 23.6 21.3 0.9 62.1 55.7 21.5 23.0 23.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 23.4 24.2 20.7 0.6 58.6 54.4 21.1 22.8 24.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 23.2 24.0 22.1 0.9 62.3 55.8 21.4 22.8 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 23.8 24.7 21.4 1.1 66.4 58.2 21.9 23.4 24.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 15.6 17.7 19.2 0.4 51.7 51.1 14.9 17.7 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 23.3 23.0 22.8 0.6 59.2 53.3 21.2 22.7 24.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------