***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2019.-22.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 20.9 22.8 23.7 0.3 54.9 53.6 21.6 22.6 23.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 23.6 22.6 23.3 0.0 48.8 50.8 21.6 22.8 24.8 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 21.6 23.3 23.9 0.1 51.2 51.8 22.6 23.3 25.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 15.2 17.0 21.9 0.8 59.4 56.8 15.8 16.5 17.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 22.1 24.5 22.2 0.2 53.4 51.9 23.1 24.4 25.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 21.9 24.3 20.3 0.4 56.2 53.8 22.1 23.1 24.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 23.5 22.6 23.3 0.0 48.8 51.1 21.2 22.7 24.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 12.1 13.0 20.7 0.0 51.1 50.1 12.0 13.0 14.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 21.8 24.3 22.5 0.3 54.5 52.8 23.1 24.1 24.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 24.0 24.0 21.4 0.2 53.4 52.3 22.6 23.4 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 21.9 24.2 22.0 0.0 51.1 50.2 23.5 24.2 25.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 21.3 23.9 21.9 -0.1 50.5 49.5 22.8 23.9 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 22.9 25.0 21.2 0.0 50.7 50.6 23.2 24.9 25.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 21.4 22.9 21.6 -0.4 46.3 47.6 21.9 23.4 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 24.4 24.5 22.8 0.8 60.1 56.9 23.1 23.8 24.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 23.2 25.2 21.8 0.2 54.3 52.3 24.1 25.1 26.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 22.9 22.0 23.0 -0.1 46.7 50.2 20.8 22.2 23.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 23.1 22.4 20.8 0.2 51.7 51.8 21.5 22.4 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 23.6 22.8 23.5 -0.1 49.4 50.3 21.5 22.8 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 17.5 18.7 18.3 -0.1 49.6 49.5 17.9 18.8 20.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 21.9 23.8 23.2 0.3 53.5 52.8 22.9 23.8 24.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 23.5 22.4 23.0 0.0 48.0 50.3 21.6 22.7 24.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 21.3 22.8 23.5 -0.3 48.5 48.6 21.8 22.9 24.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 24.1 23.4 22.0 0.1 50.4 50.8 22.1 23.4 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 21.7 23.3 22.2 0.5 59.0 54.8 22.5 23.0 24.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 23.1 24.7 21.4 -0.1 48.6 48.9 22.7 24.7 25.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 21.5 23.4 23.0 0.5 57.8 54.8 22.1 22.8 24.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 23.1 25.3 22.3 0.7 59.6 56.6 22.8 25.0 25.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 15.9 18.1 19.7 0.0 49.8 50.0 17.6 18.1 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 23.3 22.5 23.5 0.1 50.2 51.3 21.6 22.5 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------