***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2019.-15.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 25.2 25.4 25.1 0.6 59.5 55.8 23.4 24.6 26.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 25.6 25.5 24.9 0.4 57.4 53.9 22.8 25.1 27.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 25.5 25.3 25.1 0.4 56.0 53.2 23.7 25.0 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 18.8 19.3 22.9 1.2 67.8 60.5 16.1 18.4 19.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 26.0 25.9 23.4 0.3 54.2 52.6 23.8 25.7 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 24.6 24.7 21.6 0.8 60.5 57.1 22.5 24.2 25.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 25.2 25.1 24.8 0.5 59.4 54.8 22.7 24.6 26.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 12.3 14.3 21.4 0.0 52.3 50.0 12.3 14.2 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 25.5 25.5 24.0 0.4 54.6 52.9 23.8 25.1 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 25.0 24.7 22.4 0.4 55.8 52.9 23.7 24.5 25.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 23.2 25.4 23.4 0.0 52.1 50.0 23.6 25.3 26.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 22.2 24.6 22.7 0.0 52.5 49.9 23.0 24.6 25.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 23.4 25.7 22.9 0.0 50.5 49.9 24.0 25.7 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 23.1 24.8 23.0 -0.1 50.8 48.5 23.4 24.8 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 26.0 26.7 24.9 0.9 64.3 58.8 23.8 25.5 26.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 26.4 26.5 23.2 0.2 54.3 52.2 23.9 26.1 27.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 24.7 24.4 24.3 0.3 57.7 53.4 22.1 24.1 25.3 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 21.7 24.2 21.4 0.2 53.2 51.2 22.8 24.0 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 25.1 24.9 24.9 0.3 56.3 52.7 22.8 24.4 26.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 18.4 20.5 19.0 -0.3 47.2 47.6 18.6 20.7 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 25.5 25.7 24.6 0.4 54.8 53.0 23.7 25.0 26.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 25.1 25.5 24.3 0.3 57.8 52.7 22.2 24.6 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 22.7 24.5 24.7 0.0 52.8 49.6 23.1 24.4 26.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 22.7 25.0 23.3 0.2 54.2 51.2 23.3 24.6 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 25.1 26.1 23.8 0.7 59.5 56.1 23.7 24.6 26.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 23.3 25.1 22.1 -0.2 51.4 49.0 24.1 25.1 26.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 25.3 25.7 24.4 0.7 60.2 56.7 23.2 24.8 26.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 26.0 26.3 23.8 1.0 65.9 59.5 23.9 25.5 26.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 17.5 19.1 20.4 -0.1 49.3 48.9 17.8 19.1 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 25.2 25.3 25.0 0.4 57.8 54.0 22.9 24.6 26.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------