***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2019.-08.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 26.3 28.2 28.3 3.2 84.8 80.4 22.3 23.8 26.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 26.8 28.6 27.9 2.7 81.7 76.0 22.2 24.3 26.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 26.7 27.9 28.0 2.7 81.1 75.6 22.8 24.3 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 19.3 21.1 25.6 3.4 86.0 82.8 15.7 16.8 18.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 26.6 27.3 26.2 2.4 77.6 73.7 23.3 24.6 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 25.2 26.2 24.8 3.2 81.6 80.1 22.7 23.7 24.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 26.6 28.1 27.9 2.9 81.9 77.7 22.1 23.9 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 15.0 15.1 24.0 2.2 75.5 71.7 12.1 13.5 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 27 73 100 26.5 27.2 26.9 2.3 75.4 72.8 23.3 24.2 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 26.3 26.9 24.9 2.4 77.6 73.8 23.3 24.0 25.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 26.6 26.9 26.4 2.0 71.7 70.0 23.0 24.2 26.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 25.8 25.8 25.5 2.3 75.9 72.3 22.4 23.7 25.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 26.6 26.9 26.5 2.3 76.8 72.8 23.9 25.1 26.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 26.6 26.7 25.4 1.6 72.9 67.5 23.5 24.5 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 27.0 27.5 28.5 2.9 79.0 78.6 24.0 25.1 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 27.1 27.7 26.5 2.5 77.6 74.2 24.2 25.3 27.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 26.5 27.9 27.0 2.4 78.5 73.8 22.0 23.4 25.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 25.3 25.8 23.6 2.2 76.3 71.5 21.9 23.4 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 26.5 28.3 27.8 2.5 79.4 74.5 22.4 23.9 26.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 21.8 21.3 21.5 1.9 73.5 69.6 17.9 19.9 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 25 75 100 26.9 28.1 27.7 2.5 80.1 75.2 22.8 24.1 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 27.0 27.8 26.8 2.2 76.5 72.2 22.6 24.1 26.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 26.4 27.4 27.3 1.9 73.0 69.9 22.9 23.9 26.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 26.2 26.7 25.9 2.1 76.3 70.9 23.0 24.0 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 21 79 100 27.1 28.3 27.1 3.0 84.1 79.5 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 26.5 26.2 25.0 2.1 73.8 71.5 22.9 24.9 25.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 27.2 28.6 27.8 3.2 86.4 81.4 22.8 23.9 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 26.8 27.9 26.8 3.1 81.5 80.3 24.0 25.1 26.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 21.0 20.7 22.7 1.9 72.8 68.8 17.4 19.1 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 26.4 28.5 28.1 2.8 82.6 76.6 22.5 24.1 26.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------