***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2019.-29.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 11.8 12.1 15.0 1.1 77.3 70.1 11.0 11.2 11.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 12.1 11.8 14.4 0.8 70.9 66.4 10.8 11.2 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 14.3 14.1 14.9 0.8 72.5 66.6 12.8 13.3 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 9.6 9.9 12.3 1.0 77.8 71.5 8.4 8.7 9.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 10.9 10.7 12.6 0.7 70.6 66.3 9.6 10.2 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 10.0 10.3 10.6 0.9 75.7 70.8 8.8 9.4 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 12.1 12.3 14.5 0.9 74.6 68.0 11.0 11.5 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 5.7 5.6 10.4 0.7 70.7 66.4 4.4 5.0 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 11.8 11.8 12.7 0.7 71.3 66.3 10.8 11.2 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 11.7 12.0 11.2 0.7 72.5 67.2 10.6 10.9 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 11.2 11.0 12.0 0.6 66.6 63.2 10.2 10.5 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 10.0 10.0 11.2 0.7 69.7 65.9 8.8 9.4 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.6 10.6 0.4 63.9 60.6 9.6 10.2 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.8 12.3 0.5 64.0 61.7 11.0 11.5 11.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 12.5 12.8 13.9 1.0 78.0 71.8 11.2 11.9 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 12.0 11.9 11.4 0.6 67.9 64.2 10.9 11.2 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 12.1 12.2 14.0 0.8 70.2 65.6 11.1 11.4 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 10.6 10.5 10.3 0.7 72.2 65.9 9.1 9.8 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 12.0 11.8 14.4 0.8 69.5 65.1 10.9 11.2 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 6.9 6.7 8.5 0.6 70.1 64.9 5.7 6.2 6.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 11.4 11.5 14.0 0.7 71.5 65.9 10.3 10.8 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 11.5 11.1 14.0 0.7 67.9 63.9 10.0 10.8 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 11.6 11.2 14.2 0.6 65.1 61.7 10.3 10.6 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 12.0 11.5 12.3 0.7 69.7 64.7 10.3 11.0 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 12.0 12.3 13.9 1.1 76.9 70.5 10.4 11.5 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.3 10.6 10.2 0.5 64.7 61.9 9.9 10.1 10.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 12.5 12.8 14.5 1.2 78.4 71.7 11.0 11.7 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 10.5 10.6 12.6 0.9 76.2 70.6 9.4 9.8 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 9.8 9.3 9.7 0.6 69.9 64.8 8.2 8.8 9.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 12.4 12.5 14.7 0.9 73.2 67.4 11.2 11.8 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------