***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2019.-29.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 10.9 11.3 12.9 0.4 59.0 54.9 9.5 10.7 11.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 11.2 11.1 12.3 0.2 55.0 52.0 9.2 10.9 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 13.4 13.3 12.9 0.3 58.4 53.6 11.3 13.2 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.0 8.8 10.3 0.6 60.6 58.0 6.6 8.7 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.3 10.6 10.3 0.3 57.7 55.3 8.7 10.0 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.2 9.6 9.0 0.7 62.9 59.2 7.8 8.9 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.9 12.5 0.3 55.9 52.8 9.9 10.8 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 4.7 4.7 8.6 0.4 57.6 55.2 4.3 4.5 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.9 10.7 10.5 0.3 55.0 54.4 9.3 10.5 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 10.6 10.6 9.2 0.4 57.3 55.0 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.2 10.3 9.9 0.4 56.6 55.7 8.7 10.0 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 9.4 9.3 9.2 0.3 55.9 54.9 7.9 9.1 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 10.1 10.2 8.6 0.4 57.7 55.9 8.6 9.7 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 9.9 10.9 10.4 0.1 55.9 51.1 9.9 10.8 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.3 11.4 11.5 0.6 61.1 58.8 9.9 11.1 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.0 11.0 9.3 0.5 58.6 56.8 10.0 10.5 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 10.9 11.0 12.0 0.2 53.4 51.8 9.6 10.5 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 8.1 10.0 8.3 0.4 59.3 54.9 8.0 8.8 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 10.9 10.7 12.3 0.2 54.7 51.4 9.9 10.5 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 4.5 6.3 6.7 0.4 60.0 55.6 4.5 5.1 6.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 10.5 10.4 11.9 0.3 56.7 54.0 9.2 10.1 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 8.9 10.0 12.0 0.2 55.5 52.1 9.2 9.7 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 9.2 10.5 12.2 0.0 53.5 49.9 9.1 10.3 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 10.5 10.5 10.2 0.3 57.5 53.2 9.3 10.2 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 11.4 11.6 11.6 0.5 59.2 56.0 9.8 11.1 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.2 10.2 8.5 0.3 55.5 55.3 8.6 10.1 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.0 12.1 12.3 0.5 59.6 55.8 9.6 11.6 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.8 10.5 0.6 60.8 58.6 8.1 9.3 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 8.9 9.0 8.0 0.4 59.3 55.0 7.2 8.7 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 11.2 11.1 12.6 0.3 57.0 53.0 9.9 10.7 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------