***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2019.-22.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9.7 10.8 13.7 0.1 50.7 50.4 10.3 10.8 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 9.5 11.2 13.2 0.0 49.3 49.4 9.9 11.2 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 12.0 13.0 13.7 0.0 47.1 49.4 12.4 13.1 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 7.5 8.5 11.1 0.2 51.2 52.2 8.0 8.5 9.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 9.3 10.3 11.1 -0.1 45.1 48.4 9.3 10.5 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 8.2 9.1 9.5 0.1 48.6 51.8 8.4 9.3 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 9.7 10.9 13.3 0.0 48.8 49.4 10.3 11.0 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 4.3 5.2 9.2 -0.2 47.0 48.1 4.8 5.3 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 10.5 11.0 11.3 -0.1 45.4 48.4 10.5 11.4 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 9.8 11.0 9.9 -0.1 47.5 48.7 10.1 11.0 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 9.6 10.3 10.5 -0.2 45.4 47.9 10.0 10.6 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 8.4 9.2 9.8 -0.2 45.1 47.7 8.5 9.3 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 8.7 9.6 9.1 -0.1 43.6 47.5 9.3 9.9 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 10.6 11.4 11.2 -0.1 45.3 48.3 10.9 11.6 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.1 12.0 12.4 0.3 54.6 53.8 10.8 11.6 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 10.5 11.2 10.0 0.0 46.9 49.3 10.4 11.6 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 10.1 11.2 12.9 -0.1 46.3 48.7 10.5 11.3 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 8.7 10.1 9.0 0.0 48.6 49.1 9.3 10.2 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 10.0 11.3 13.2 -0.1 47.9 49.0 10.1 11.3 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 5.0 6.1 7.2 -0.1 44.5 48.1 5.2 6.4 6.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 9.7 10.7 12.7 0.0 46.3 49.3 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 9.2 10.2 12.8 -0.1 46.7 48.7 9.3 10.4 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 9.2 10.4 13.1 -0.2 43.7 47.7 9.8 10.8 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 9.9 10.6 11.0 0.0 47.7 49.1 10.1 10.7 11.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 10.3 11.6 12.4 0.1 50.2 51.5 10.5 11.6 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 9.1 9.9 9.0 -0.2 43.7 47.8 9.0 10.4 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 9.5 11.2 13.1 0.2 51.3 51.8 10.3 11.1 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.2 9.8 11.4 0.3 52.6 53.1 9.0 9.6 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 7.8 8.5 8.6 -0.1 45.6 48.3 7.9 9.0 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 9.9 11.1 13.5 0.0 48.8 49.6 10.5 11.2 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------