***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2019.-15.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 12.3 13.1 15.3 0.9 65.0 60.2 10.3 12.0 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 11.9 12.5 14.7 0.7 64.7 58.8 10.3 11.4 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 14.3 14.5 15.3 0.7 64.5 59.5 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 10.1 11.0 12.8 0.9 66.8 61.3 8.3 9.5 10.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.1 11.3 13.1 0.6 62.4 57.9 8.6 10.7 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 9.8 11.0 11.0 0.9 65.4 61.7 8.1 9.3 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 11.8 12.7 14.9 0.8 66.6 59.9 10.8 11.3 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 5.8 6.3 10.7 0.5 59.5 56.8 4.5 5.2 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 12.3 12.7 13.2 0.7 63.9 59.3 10.6 12.0 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 12.1 12.2 11.5 0.6 62.3 58.4 9.9 11.7 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.7 12.6 0.5 58.7 56.7 9.4 11.1 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.8 10.5 11.7 0.6 59.9 57.7 8.2 9.2 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 9.0 10.7 11.4 0.6 61.8 57.6 9.0 10.3 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 12.3 12.3 12.8 0.5 60.5 57.1 11.0 11.9 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 13.6 14.0 14.6 1.0 68.9 64.2 10.8 12.5 13.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.1 12.5 12.1 0.7 61.9 58.9 10.3 11.7 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 12.2 12.7 14.3 0.6 63.3 57.7 11.5 11.8 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 10.3 11.2 10.8 0.6 62.8 58.3 8.5 9.9 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 12.0 12.3 14.7 0.6 63.6 57.9 10.3 11.7 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.5 7.0 8.8 0.4 59.6 55.1 5.2 5.8 8.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.7 12.1 14.4 0.7 64.2 59.0 10.3 11.3 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 11.5 11.6 14.4 0.5 60.6 56.0 10.0 11.1 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 11.5 11.7 14.7 0.5 61.2 56.1 9.8 11.1 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 12.0 12.1 12.9 0.7 63.4 59.4 10.3 11.6 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.9 12.6 14.3 0.9 64.7 59.7 9.9 11.4 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 9.1 11.4 10.9 0.6 62.6 57.4 9.2 10.3 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 12.2 12.6 14.8 1.0 66.3 60.8 10.6 11.7 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.7 11.9 13.2 0.9 66.7 62.4 8.3 10.3 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 9.6 10.0 10.1 0.4 60.0 56.2 8.6 9.1 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 12.4 12.4 15.1 0.8 65.0 59.5 10.9 12.0 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------