***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2013.-29.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 0.0 29.9 73.1 40.9 37.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 24.3 34.7 30.5 71.5 41.6 36.8 29.3 40.7 58.9 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 30.4 44.9 31.0 76.5 43.7 40.0 30.7 47.7 56.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 36.9 58.7 30.7 73.1 51.8 42.2 32.5 57.8 79.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 25.3 40.1 30.5 73.4 48.1 41.3 29.3 42.1 55.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 29.2 41.2 38.5 76.1 46.0 40.9 26.7 43.0 58.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 29.3 39.1 30.8 70.5 43.5 36.8 34.1 43.8 59.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 51.1 66.5 36.9 78.3 46.2 40.1 52.2 69.1 88.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 50.8 44.8 32.0 76.3 48.0 41.1 30.4 45.9 58.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 33.9 48.5 37.6 78.7 46.5 40.5 31.5 50.9 65.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 28.5 42.7 29.5 75.0 48.6 41.5 32.2 43.6 62.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 26.3 40.0 28.4 73.0 44.8 39.1 29.6 43.3 63.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 27.3 42.0 30.5 67.6 45.1 37.2 28.8 43.6 51.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 42.4 57.6 42.7 82.9 44.2 40.8 45.2 60.8 69.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 21.2 30.3 26.6 69.2 48.7 39.8 21.6 31.3 56.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 21.7 35.0 28.9 70.0 48.4 39.7 24.3 35.4 50.6 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 25.6 35.5 30.9 69.7 39.4 35.8 31.8 45.9 53.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 40.6 56.6 44.6 80.6 44.4 39.8 44.5 63.2 76.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 25.8 37.2 30.7 73.4 41.4 37.6 31.3 45.1 67.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 47.7 67.0 52.5 80.5 43.7 39.7 58.6 68.7 82.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 60.1 52.9 29.7 75.3 47.8 40.4 29.4 54.3 68.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 25.3 36.3 33.3 73.7 37.7 38.4 33.6 40.8 56.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 27.6 36.5 32.5 77.2 42.3 39.5 32.0 40.9 50.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 40.5 60.4 39.3 81.3 45.5 40.9 37.4 64.1 77.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 29.6 42.4 32.1 72.3 44.3 38.1 34.8 48.8 67.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 22.0 33.8 28.8 71.7 44.6 39.1 25.8 34.9 47.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 30.1 38.3 32.8 72.6 41.7 36.9 33.7 42.7 60.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 22.7 33.4 28.8 71.5 50.1 41.3 22.0 33.3 50.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 59.7 81.7 48.6 81.8 45.0 40.2 59.4 90.1 128.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 25.0 34.0 30.3 71.8 42.9 37.3 27.1 41.5 50.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------