***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2013.-29.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 9.0 123.4 69.4 53.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 8.0 11.5 8.8 106.9 67.2 49.6 2.6 5.9 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 11.9 16.5 8.6 119.4 71.6 52.0 4.4 7.8 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.9 17.3 8.8 116.3 67.3 49.6 7.1 9.6 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 9.1 12.4 8.6 111.7 66.3 51.7 3.5 6.6 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 8.6 8.4 10.6 98.7 61.0 48.4 2.6 5.4 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.1 10.3 9.1 105.0 67.7 48.7 2.8 4.3 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 17.3 16.0 9.5 104.9 62.5 50.9 6.5 12.8 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 9.9 14.3 8.7 113.5 68.0 51.8 2.1 7.1 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 14.0 19.5 9.7 107.1 63.7 50.8 3.4 11.0 20.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 9.6 17.4 8.2 108.0 66.7 51.7 3.0 7.0 17.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 8.4 9.9 7.8 105.5 65.8 51.6 1.7 5.1 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 9.8 9.7 8.9 101.8 63.3 50.8 2.5 6.3 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 5.3 19.4 11.9 129.6 72.1 53.0 5.2 11.0 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 2.8 13.9 8.8 128.9 71.7 50.0 3.0 5.6 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 7.4 9.4 8.4 105.1 64.8 51.7 3.3 5.6 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.5 9.5 8.8 101.0 63.6 49.4 2.0 6.3 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.9 16.8 11.6 110.8 66.3 51.9 3.5 7.9 16.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.6 11.4 8.7 113.4 69.5 50.5 3.3 7.3 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 14.7 16.4 13.7 108.5 61.7 52.3 6.6 9.0 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.4 17.7 8.4 120.2 67.5 52.3 3.9 5.8 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 10.2 10.7 8.8 108.0 65.8 49.9 2.9 8.6 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 11.9 19.0 9.1 125.9 73.8 52.0 4.2 9.0 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.4 16.3 10.7 122.0 70.8 52.2 3.5 8.2 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.8 18.6 9.5 117.7 66.5 50.3 4.7 8.2 18.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 3.8 12.5 8.5 101.7 66.2 53.3 2.1 7.9 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.5 18.3 9.7 118.4 68.3 51.8 3.5 7.3 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.4 12.7 8.7 118.8 69.7 49.8 1.3 5.9 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 18.7 22.8 12.7 113.0 66.3 52.6 6.9 10.4 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 8.2 11.4 8.9 111.2 70.8 50.5 2.5 5.6 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------