***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2013.-22.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 6.0 60.8 53.1 42.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 3.1 6.5 6.5 59.8 51.6 43.1 3.2 6.3 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.0 8.3 7.0 70.6 56.4 45.0 1.9 6.3 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 8.3 9.6 7.4 70.0 59.2 45.1 2.1 4.5 12.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 2.2 5.5 7.5 70.1 55.8 43.5 0.5 4.4 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.9 9.2 10.4 82.5 63.3 48.9 1.8 5.9 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.6 7.8 6.3 55.9 50.5 42.7 2.6 7.6 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 6.1 19.0 9.6 79.0 60.1 46.2 4.6 12.4 23.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 2.9 7.7 7.6 69.4 55.7 44.2 1.3 6.2 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 3.2 9.3 9.4 75.8 58.9 44.5 5.2 6.8 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.1 10.9 7.5 77.2 59.3 45.9 0.7 3.9 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.5 11.8 7.2 73.3 58.4 46.5 0.4 6.8 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.8 8.8 7.9 71.7 60.5 46.7 1.4 6.5 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.9 11.0 9.8 68.9 52.6 43.5 1.5 9.0 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.5 10.7 7.1 72.7 64.8 46.5 0.2 2.2 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 1.6 4.9 7.5 75.0 60.1 46.9 0.6 3.3 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 3.0 6.6 7.5 61.3 52.1 41.4 4.0 6.4 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 3.6 14.6 11.3 75.6 55.7 43.7 1.7 7.9 21.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 9.6 6.5 6.8 63.9 53.5 43.7 2.0 5.9 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 17.7 18.7 14.5 82.3 56.5 46.6 6.7 14.5 22.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 2.4 6.7 6.6 65.2 53.6 44.2 1.1 4.8 17.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 2.7 7.1 8.4 68.1 54.5 42.2 3.3 6.9 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.6 7.6 7.3 67.8 54.5 44.3 1.9 4.9 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 2.9 6.9 9.6 74.4 55.2 44.2 2.3 6.3 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 11.4 10.8 7.2 65.5 53.8 43.4 1.6 8.4 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 9.9 11.9 7.2 77.6 59.9 50.0 1.1 7.9 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.4 8.0 6.9 62.8 52.8 42.4 0.8 7.2 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 7.9 12.3 7.5 74.9 64.0 46.6 0.4 3.3 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 21.7 17.4 12.6 76.6 55.2 44.4 6.4 16.0 27.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 10.0 6.0 6.3 61.0 52.3 43.3 0.7 5.6 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------