***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2013.-15.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 10.4 96.0 64.0 51.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 14.3 14.4 10.1 86.8 58.4 48.9 2.4 11.0 21.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.8 13.8 10.2 94.9 60.7 50.3 2.5 8.0 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 15.9 18.4 9.7 92.4 63.9 51.7 1.6 13.6 18.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 4.3 17.9 10.5 99.1 68.5 50.1 0.6 8.9 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.0 9.4 11.4 83.1 65.0 51.9 1.4 4.9 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.6 14.6 10.3 87.0 59.9 49.1 2.9 7.4 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 18.7 24.1 12.5 101.6 66.8 54.5 5.4 14.9 23.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 13.2 19.7 11.5 107.4 69.2 52.3 3.1 10.4 18.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.2 15.5 13.2 104.8 67.1 53.0 3.1 11.2 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.4 16.5 9.8 95.5 67.3 53.0 0.4 6.0 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 9.2 14.2 9.4 94.9 67.5 53.0 2.0 6.6 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 7.5 6.9 9.6 81.2 62.5 49.5 1.9 4.2 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 3.7 24.1 14.9 106.4 65.9 52.6 2.9 7.4 24.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 1.2 5.1 7.5 76.0 62.6 47.4 0.2 2.4 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.9 9.0 9.0 83.0 64.1 50.2 1.1 6.6 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.3 19.9 9.4 82.4 60.1 48.2 1.7 12.4 22.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.0 18.3 15.6 103.8 65.4 50.8 3.6 10.6 18.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.7 15.6 10.1 89.0 59.9 48.9 2.6 8.4 18.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 19.9 23.1 16.8 94.1 64.0 51.3 6.1 16.0 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.9 24.4 10.3 105.7 69.0 51.9 2.5 8.1 24.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 15.8 15.4 10.1 86.6 58.3 48.5 3.6 10.3 21.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 3.2 19.6 10.8 95.7 63.3 50.5 2.9 7.6 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.8 20.8 13.7 104.5 65.4 51.4 2.1 10.1 21.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 13.6 21.2 11.1 94.2 62.6 49.9 2.4 7.4 24.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 4.6 8.6 8.8 89.6 69.3 53.6 0.6 2.5 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 16.2 21.5 11.4 92.9 61.2 50.2 1.2 10.6 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 8.0 10.4 8.6 83.3 62.8 49.5 0.5 5.4 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 28.2 30.9 16.6 101.6 65.9 51.5 7.9 23.5 30.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 5.1 11.5 10.3 88.8 57.8 49.2 3.1 10.3 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------