***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2013.-08.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 78 22 0 100 9999.0 0.0 4.5 34.8 34.5 29.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 1.4 1.8 5.0 42.6 38.7 31.4 0.6 3.2 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 1.5 0.6 5.2 41.1 35.5 31.6 0.4 4.4 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 2.8 4.0 4.7 35.2 42.2 29.9 3.7 8.3 20.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 1.6 2.6 3.9 31.1 35.7 24.5 2.4 5.9 16.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 75 25 0 100 2.0 6.8 6.1 45.1 42.0 32.6 2.6 7.7 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 2.4 4.4 5.1 43.2 39.6 32.9 1.0 6.0 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 78 22 0 100 4.3 12.2 5.3 39.1 33.4 27.0 11.9 17.4 26.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 2.3 4.5 4.3 33.6 35.1 24.9 3.9 8.4 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 2.5 3.2 5.3 38.8 34.2 26.6 2.9 6.8 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 1.6 3.8 3.9 33.8 37.0 26.7 3.2 7.5 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 79 21 0 100 2.0 2.4 4.1 34.5 35.7 25.7 2.2 9.3 20.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 78 22 0 100 2.5 5.4 4.1 30.3 34.3 23.3 4.5 11.1 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 3.8 2.1 6.1 43.1 36.0 27.5 1.8 11.3 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 0.5 0.5 3.2 26.8 36.9 24.9 0.4 1.8 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 77 23 0 100 2.5 4.1 4.0 32.1 35.0 25.5 3.4 9.2 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 2.2 3.1 5.3 43.6 39.6 33.2 1.7 5.2 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 4.1 1.6 6.1 40.9 30.7 26.7 1.9 14.3 17.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 2.4 3.0 5.1 42.3 38.8 30.5 2.2 5.4 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 77 23 0 100 3.8 3.2 7.6 44.2 30.6 27.7 3.9 15.3 22.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 1.6 1.3 4.5 35.5 34.2 27.2 1.1 6.0 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 4.3 7.0 6.1 46.2 37.6 31.3 5.0 10.6 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 2.2 3.2 5.3 41.2 39.6 28.5 1.8 5.7 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 2.3 0.9 5.3 39.3 31.9 26.2 1.1 6.8 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 1.8 0.8 4.4 32.3 35.8 25.6 0.5 6.7 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 83 17 0 100 1.2 1.5 4.4 34.2 34.2 26.1 1.0 7.0 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 0.8 0.0 4.7 34.8 34.5 28.2 0.0 3.1 9.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 1.8 2.8 4.0 31.6 38.8 26.9 1.5 6.4 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 75 25 0 100 4.2 8.4 6.7 43.6 31.7 27.0 9.0 15.8 27.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 1.2 0.7 4.7 38.8 35.9 29.5 0.5 3.5 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------