***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2013.-29.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 9999.0 0.0 22.4 0.7 64.5 58.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 24.5 24.6 22.4 0.8 66.8 58.8 21.6 22.9 24.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 24.8 24.1 22.5 0.8 64.3 59.0 21.2 23.1 24.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 16.4 16.6 20.8 0.6 61.8 57.6 14.7 16.0 16.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 24.2 24.6 21.0 0.7 60.7 58.4 21.4 23.7 25.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 23.0 23.3 19.4 0.8 59.7 58.1 20.8 22.5 23.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 23.9 24.2 22.2 0.7 66.4 58.3 21.2 22.5 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 12.7 13.3 19.6 0.7 59.5 57.7 11.2 12.3 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 24.0 23.8 21.4 0.8 59.3 59.1 21.1 23.4 24.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 23.4 23.4 20.2 0.7 59.1 58.0 20.4 22.7 24.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 24.2 24.5 20.8 0.9 61.4 59.1 20.9 23.6 24.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 23.4 23.6 20.7 0.9 60.6 58.8 20.3 22.9 24.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 24.1 24.8 20.3 0.9 60.2 58.8 21.1 23.7 25.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 24.8 24.2 21.0 0.7 63.3 58.2 21.5 22.3 25.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 24.2 24.1 21.2 0.7 62.6 58.6 22.1 23.2 24.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 24.7 25.1 20.7 0.9 61.1 58.9 21.8 24.1 25.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 23.6 23.7 21.9 0.8 65.9 58.8 21.2 21.9 23.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 22.1 22.5 19.4 0.6 59.8 56.8 20.1 21.4 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 24.6 24.2 22.5 0.8 66.4 59.2 21.1 22.7 24.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 18.3 19.1 17.3 0.4 58.1 55.5 16.4 17.8 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 23.9 24.4 22.0 0.8 61.0 59.0 21.0 23.3 24.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 24.8 24.5 22.0 0.8 65.5 59.0 21.3 23.2 24.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 24.7 24.3 22.5 0.9 66.1 59.3 21.4 23.0 24.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 23.2 23.4 21.0 0.7 62.1 58.1 21.3 22.4 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 23.4 23.6 21.0 0.7 63.5 58.4 21.5 23.0 23.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 23.3 24.3 20.1 0.7 58.9 56.8 21.1 22.8 24.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 23.2 24.2 21.5 0.7 64.2 58.0 21.4 22.8 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 23.8 24.4 21.1 0.7 62.1 58.0 21.9 23.4 24.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 18.2 18.0 18.4 0.5 59.1 56.2 14.9 17.7 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 24.3 24.6 22.5 0.8 66.4 58.6 21.2 22.7 24.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------