***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2013.-22.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 9999.0 0.0 24.5 1.5 70.5 63.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 25.3 25.6 24.4 1.7 70.4 64.9 21.6 22.8 24.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 25.3 25.4 24.7 1.7 71.5 65.0 22.6 23.3 25.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 17.7 17.9 23.0 1.2 71.1 63.0 15.8 16.5 17.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 25.7 25.6 23.2 1.4 72.2 64.3 23.1 24.4 25.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 25.0 25.0 21.5 1.5 73.1 65.0 22.1 23.1 24.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 24.9 24.9 24.2 1.6 69.1 64.5 21.2 22.7 24.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 14.5 14.9 21.8 1.5 72.7 64.7 12.0 13.0 14.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 25.3 25.3 23.6 1.6 73.9 65.0 23.1 24.1 24.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 24.8 25.3 22.4 1.5 72.7 64.4 22.6 23.4 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 25.5 25.8 23.1 1.6 74.5 66.4 23.5 24.2 25.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 25.0 25.0 23.0 1.7 74.0 66.5 22.8 23.9 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 26.1 26.3 22.6 1.7 73.3 66.7 23.2 24.9 25.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 25.5 25.7 23.1 1.6 68.5 64.4 21.9 23.4 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 25.4 25.4 23.5 1.3 71.0 64.0 23.1 23.8 24.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 26.6 27.0 23.0 1.6 74.3 66.6 24.1 25.1 26.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 24.3 24.2 24.0 1.7 69.8 65.7 20.8 22.2 23.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 24.0 24.0 21.5 1.4 68.9 62.8 21.5 22.4 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 25.1 25.3 24.6 1.8 71.4 65.5 21.5 22.8 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 19.2 20.8 19.4 1.3 67.7 61.9 17.9 18.8 20.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 25.1 24.9 24.3 1.6 72.3 64.5 22.9 23.8 24.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 25.0 25.6 24.0 1.7 70.3 65.2 21.6 22.7 24.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 25.3 25.0 24.6 1.9 71.7 66.1 21.8 22.9 24.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 25.2 24.8 23.2 1.6 69.2 64.3 22.1 23.4 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 24.5 25.0 23.1 1.4 72.1 63.7 22.5 23.0 24.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 25.1 26.1 22.4 1.4 70.6 64.6 22.7 24.7 25.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 25.0 25.1 23.6 1.4 71.0 63.6 22.1 22.8 24.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 25.8 25.8 23.4 1.3 71.4 64.0 22.8 25.0 25.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 18.8 19.6 20.5 1.3 67.7 62.0 17.6 18.1 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 25.0 25.4 24.6 1.6 70.2 64.7 21.6 22.5 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------