***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2013.-08.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 9999.0 0.0 25.2 0.4 63.7 60.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 26.8 26.9 25.5 0.8 68.6 65.4 22.2 24.3 26.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 26.6 26.3 25.9 1.0 69.4 65.9 22.8 24.3 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 92 8 100 17.1 18.0 23.4 0.3 61.8 58.7 15.7 16.8 18.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 25.0 26.1 24.4 0.8 64.9 63.4 23.3 24.6 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 23.9 24.6 22.0 0.6 62.2 60.8 22.7 23.7 24.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 26.0 26.3 25.1 0.6 67.2 63.1 22.1 23.9 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 45 55 100 14.6 14.6 22.7 0.9 67.6 64.6 12.1 13.5 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 24.7 26.3 25.3 1.0 67.6 65.7 23.3 24.2 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 24.5 25.4 23.6 1.0 67.7 65.3 23.3 24.0 25.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 24.6 26.0 24.3 0.9 66.5 63.8 23.0 24.2 26.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 25.4 25.2 23.8 1.0 68.5 65.2 22.4 23.7 25.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 45 55 100 26.2 26.2 23.9 1.0 69.1 65.2 23.9 25.1 26.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 26.7 26.4 24.8 1.2 69.9 67.5 23.5 24.5 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 91 9 100 25.3 25.5 24.6 -0.1 58.9 54.6 24.0 25.1 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 25.7 27.0 24.1 0.9 66.8 63.9 24.2 25.3 27.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 26.8 26.3 25.1 1.0 70.5 67.2 22.0 23.4 25.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 23.8 24.9 22.6 0.9 67.8 63.7 21.9 23.4 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 26.8 26.6 25.8 1.1 70.5 67.4 22.4 23.9 26.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 41 59 100 21.5 20.9 20.6 0.9 67.9 63.6 17.9 19.9 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 24.6 26.1 25.6 0.8 66.0 63.1 22.8 24.1 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 27.4 27.3 25.3 1.2 73.0 68.8 22.6 24.1 26.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 26.9 27.2 26.0 1.4 71.5 69.6 22.9 23.9 26.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 25.8 25.6 24.5 1.0 68.8 65.4 23.0 24.0 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 24.6 25.1 23.9 0.2 61.0 57.5 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 26.1 25.4 23.2 0.7 65.8 62.6 22.9 24.9 25.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 86 14 100 24.5 25.2 24.4 0.3 62.7 59.3 22.8 23.9 25.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 91 9 100 25.3 26.0 24.1 0.2 60.9 57.9 24.0 25.1 26.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 20.6 20.4 21.8 0.9 68.5 63.2 17.4 19.1 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 26.1 26.4 25.6 0.7 67.4 64.3 22.5 24.1 26.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------