***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2013.-29.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 14.2 0.5 65.5 60.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 11.5 11.6 14.0 0.5 64.9 61.4 10.8 11.2 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 14.2 13.9 14.1 0.6 70.6 64.5 12.8 13.3 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 8.9 8.9 11.9 0.2 55.7 54.7 8.4 8.7 9.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 10.4 10.4 11.9 0.3 61.5 57.8 9.6 10.2 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 9.9 9.8 10.3 0.4 66.4 61.6 8.8 9.4 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 11.7 11.7 14.0 0.5 64.4 61.1 11.0 11.5 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 5.6 5.4 10.4 0.5 66.6 62.1 4.4 5.0 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 11.4 11.5 12.5 0.4 65.4 60.9 10.8 11.2 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 11.2 11.2 10.9 0.4 64.2 61.2 10.6 10.9 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 10.7 10.9 11.6 0.4 65.3 61.8 10.2 10.5 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 43 57 100 9.9 9.8 11.2 0.5 66.8 62.8 8.8 9.4 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 10.4 10.6 10.7 0.4 65.9 61.4 9.6 10.2 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 12.3 11.8 12.5 0.5 66.5 62.5 11.0 11.5 11.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 12.1 12.0 12.8 0.3 58.0 57.1 11.2 11.9 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 11.4 11.6 11.3 0.4 64.4 61.4 10.9 11.2 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 11.6 11.8 13.6 0.5 63.8 61.0 11.1 11.4 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.0 10.2 10.2 0.3 60.5 58.5 9.1 9.8 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 11.4 11.7 14.1 0.6 66.7 63.3 10.9 11.2 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 6.4 6.6 8.7 0.3 60.6 57.5 5.7 6.2 6.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 11.0 11.2 13.5 0.5 67.1 61.9 10.3 10.8 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 11.0 11.0 13.6 0.5 62.7 62.0 10.0 10.8 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 11.6 11.3 14.0 0.7 70.1 66.0 10.3 10.6 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 11.3 11.4 12.2 0.5 67.8 63.0 10.3 11.0 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 11.6 11.8 12.7 0.3 64.4 58.1 10.4 11.5 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.2 10.7 0.3 59.7 58.2 9.9 10.1 10.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 11.9 12.2 13.4 0.4 64.7 59.3 11.0 11.7 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 10.0 9.9 12.3 0.2 57.8 57.1 9.4 9.8 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 9.1 9.1 9.7 0.4 64.5 59.9 8.2 8.8 9.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 12.0 12.0 14.2 0.5 65.8 62.0 11.2 11.8 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------