***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2013.-29.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 12.6 0.4 55.4 54.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 11.2 11.2 12.5 0.4 57.7 54.9 9.2 10.9 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.3 12.5 0.5 57.1 55.6 11.3 13.2 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.0 8.7 10.3 0.1 50.4 51.7 6.6 8.7 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 10.3 10.3 10.3 0.2 51.7 53.3 8.7 10.0 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.2 9.0 8.6 0.2 51.0 53.9 7.8 8.9 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 11.0 10.9 12.4 0.3 56.6 54.9 9.9 10.8 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 4.7 4.5 8.9 0.4 53.4 55.4 4.3 4.5 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 10.8 10.6 10.8 0.4 53.1 54.3 9.3 10.5 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 10.4 10.3 9.3 0.4 52.5 54.2 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 10.2 10.2 10.0 0.4 54.7 56.0 8.7 10.0 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.4 9.3 9.7 0.4 55.9 56.3 7.9 9.1 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.1 10.0 9.0 0.3 52.7 55.0 8.6 9.7 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 11.1 10.8 10.9 0.4 53.5 54.7 9.9 10.8 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 11.3 11.1 11.0 0.3 52.4 53.3 9.9 11.1 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.0 10.5 9.6 0.3 52.7 55.7 10.0 10.5 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 10.8 11.3 12.0 0.3 56.2 53.8 9.6 10.5 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 9.2 8.9 8.7 0.3 51.7 53.0 8.0 8.8 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 10.8 10.7 12.5 0.5 57.6 55.6 9.9 10.5 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 5.5 5.3 7.4 0.3 52.3 53.7 4.5 5.1 6.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 10.4 10.3 11.8 0.4 54.3 54.5 9.2 10.1 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 9.9 10.0 12.0 0.4 56.2 54.3 9.2 9.7 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 10.5 10.6 12.3 0.6 58.0 56.5 9.1 10.3 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.5 10.5 10.6 0.4 53.9 54.6 9.3 10.2 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 11.4 11.4 11.1 0.3 54.9 53.7 9.8 11.1 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.2 10.1 9.4 0.3 55.0 55.1 8.6 10.1 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 12.0 12.0 11.8 0.4 55.9 54.3 9.6 11.6 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.7 9.4 10.6 0.2 51.7 53.1 8.1 9.3 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 8.9 8.8 8.3 0.3 51.7 53.7 7.2 8.7 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 11.1 11.1 12.6 0.4 57.0 55.3 9.9 10.7 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------