***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2013.-22.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 14.2 0.9 64.0 60.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 12.0 11.8 14.0 0.9 67.6 61.8 9.9 11.2 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.7 14.1 1.0 66.9 62.4 12.4 13.1 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 7.5 9.3 11.7 0.4 59.5 55.6 8.0 8.5 9.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.8 10.9 11.7 0.5 60.3 57.3 9.3 10.5 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.9 10.1 10.3 0.8 66.5 61.2 8.4 9.3 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.5 12.0 14.0 0.9 67.3 61.7 10.3 11.0 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 5.5 5.9 10.3 0.8 63.4 60.8 4.8 5.3 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 11.7 12.0 12.3 0.7 63.2 60.0 10.5 11.4 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 11.2 11.8 10.8 0.7 61.9 59.7 10.1 11.0 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 10.9 11.2 11.5 0.8 62.2 60.9 10.0 10.6 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 9.7 9.9 11.1 0.8 63.2 61.5 8.5 9.3 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.4 10.4 0.6 60.9 59.5 9.3 9.9 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 11.8 12.0 12.4 0.8 64.6 62.1 10.9 11.6 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 12.0 12.5 12.5 0.6 65.0 60.0 10.8 11.6 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.9 11.1 0.7 61.3 60.3 10.4 11.6 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 11.7 12.2 13.6 0.9 63.4 61.2 10.5 11.3 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.7 10.1 0.6 60.0 58.4 9.3 10.2 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 12.4 11.9 14.1 1.0 67.7 62.4 10.1 11.3 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.6 8.8 0.6 58.8 57.9 5.2 6.4 6.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 11.1 11.4 13.4 0.8 63.4 60.3 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 10.7 11.5 13.5 0.8 64.2 60.9 9.3 10.4 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 11.8 11.6 13.9 1.0 68.3 63.4 9.8 10.8 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.0 11.7 12.1 0.8 65.0 61.4 10.1 10.7 11.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.9 12.6 0.8 60.7 58.7 10.5 11.6 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 10.7 10.9 10.6 0.5 59.1 57.3 9.0 10.4 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.8 13.4 0.9 62.5 59.6 10.3 11.1 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.1 10.5 12.1 0.5 63.2 58.4 9.0 9.6 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 9.4 9.2 9.6 0.7 62.0 59.5 7.9 9.0 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.7 12.3 14.2 1.0 67.1 61.8 10.5 11.2 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------