***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2013.-08.09.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 14.4 -0.6 49.8 45.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 12.4 12.3 14.2 -0.5 52.3 48.7 11.1 12.2 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 14.1 13.8 14.6 -0.3 54.3 50.8 13.1 13.5 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.3 8.1 12.1 -0.9 39.5 38.7 7.7 8.6 10.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.5 10.3 12.4 -0.9 38.5 39.3 10.0 11.2 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 8.9 9.4 10.5 -0.7 36.1 39.7 9.4 9.8 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 12.6 12.5 14.4 -0.4 55.6 50.2 11.6 12.5 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 5.7 4.5 10.5 -0.8 38.7 40.3 4.3 5.2 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 12.4 11.7 12.9 -0.8 40.2 40.7 11.2 12.1 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.3 11.8 11.3 -0.8 40.5 40.6 11.4 12.1 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.0 11.8 -0.9 35.6 36.7 10.9 11.6 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 10.4 9.4 11.1 -0.9 35.1 38.4 9.4 10.1 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 10.0 10.3 11.1 -0.8 31.9 37.1 10.3 10.9 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.0 12.3 12.9 -0.7 44.1 43.2 11.7 12.6 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 13.2 12.4 13.4 -1.0 37.9 35.2 12.3 12.9 13.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 11.2 11.8 11.6 -0.8 34.4 36.8 11.6 12.1 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 12.8 12.6 13.9 -0.4 51.7 48.7 11.8 12.5 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 9.7 10.4 10.3 -0.9 36.3 37.0 10.2 11.1 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 12.3 12.1 14.3 -0.4 53.4 50.3 11.4 12.0 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 5.8 5.8 8.4 -0.9 32.9 35.6 5.8 7.2 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 12.2 11.8 14.1 -0.6 45.0 44.9 10.7 11.9 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 12.2 12.1 14.1 -0.4 53.2 50.3 11.2 12.0 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 12.3 12.1 14.4 -0.2 55.1 52.3 10.6 12.0 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.3 11.9 12.6 -0.6 45.5 44.2 11.4 12.0 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 12.1 11.4 13.3 -0.8 42.0 42.0 11.0 11.8 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 9.9 10.4 10.6 -0.9 31.7 35.9 10.4 11.0 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.2 11.4 13.7 -0.8 44.9 43.2 11.0 11.7 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.0 10.2 12.7 -0.9 39.3 37.9 10.1 10.8 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.9 8.3 9.7 -0.8 36.2 38.0 8.1 8.7 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 12.4 12.2 14.5 -0.4 53.4 49.5 11.5 12.1 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------